Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25064bfda8f929c43606c584d9fecc8bbbd21639ef151e60d2da5cc500ade4a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 2c | 945.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 749.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 41c | 640.33$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.07 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 40c | 630.42$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.44 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 10c | 581.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 26c | 552.3$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.98 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 34c | 501.33$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.64 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 38c | 349.91$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.26 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 34c | 342.3$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 313$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 297.42$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x963c…c15bbacked No | 60c | 297.08$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 31c | 287.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 33c | 280.39$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 54c | 278.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 273$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 56c | 267.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.08 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 31c | 250.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 245$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 16c | 240$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 229.47$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 183.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 35c | 167.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 60c | 166.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 63c | 159.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked Yes | 35c | 149.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 149.92$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 47c | 148.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 124.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 123$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 122$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed No | 61c | 117.24$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 62c | 111.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 108.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 26c | 100.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 40c | 94.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 68c | 85.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…4076backed Yes | 32c | 85.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked No | 68c | 84.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 25c | 79.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 48c | 78.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 78.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 63c | 76.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 75.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…86b4backed No | 63c | 74.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6833…2011backed Yes | 41c | 72.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 65c | 72.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…6847backed Yes | 47c | 70.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 36c | 69.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 72c | 67.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 64.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 39c | 55.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 50.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0871…da45backed Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 42c | 49.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 39c | 49.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 63c | 47.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…72c6backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 38.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 36c | 36.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 34.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 37c | 32.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…1730backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…3b86backed Yes | 54c | 31.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x841b…a2a7backed No | 67c | 30.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 29.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 35c | 29.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac7…85b4backed No | 64c | 27.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0299…5f62backed No | 54c | 26.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 54c | 25.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 24.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…d103backed No | 70c | 23.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes | 52c | 23.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 57c | 23.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…8a20backed No | 60c | 20.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 19.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.