Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3955231f3e9fba8ec274b6917e332ac906634d6db8e08ef846f5c6d439c5e7da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 7,701$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,433$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,286$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 2c | 849.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 4c | 755.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 11c | 644.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 570.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 488.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 3c | 398.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 3c | 384.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 309.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 12c | 287.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 12c | 249.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 18c | 242.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 239.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 10c | 215.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 10c | 200.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 5c | 199.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 7c | 188.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 7c | 163.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 8c | 155.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 14c | 141.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 8c | 137.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 8c | 127.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 124.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 104.06$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…6c3cbacked Yes | 16c | 102.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 69c | 57.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0871…da45backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 46.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 41.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…b342backed No | 76c | 26.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 19.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 79c | 16.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.