TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Marlins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Marlinsof Nationals, Marlins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$202,825
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$207,724

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,825 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 415 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Nationals46c58,848$27,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,270.0238043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Marlins53c37,676$19,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,712.391,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Marlins53c19,280$10,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,014.4938047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8e2…322bbacked Nationals48c14,777$7,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,092.962133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8086…22b7backed Marlins52c14,420$7,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,921.62556%14 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Marlins77c8,026$6,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.81,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Nationals47c7,459$3,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,505.5326949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fa0…7894backed Nationals47c7,404$3,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4807455.4%41 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Nationals20c6,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17069249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad9…7e5bbacked Nationals0c5,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Marlins58c4,980$2,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,066.881,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Marlins54c4,505$2,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,072.3623455.6%130 W · 104 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Marlins51c4,483$2,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,179.8956451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Marlins53c4,432$2,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,083.1444456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins53c3,594$1,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.492,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Marlins52c3,348$1,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,606.931,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Nationals47c2,222$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.3498149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Marlins53c2,086$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.1824253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Marlins54c1,961$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.0663152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Marlins73c1,829$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.8321847.7%104 W · 114 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Marlins54c1,500$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69015650.6%79 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84b8…8590backed Marlins56c1,071$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.043743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Nationals47c940$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Nationals47c862.55$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.44341.9%18 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Marlins52c826.29$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.621,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Nationals47c800.36$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.7783248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals45c800.16$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.822,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Nationals25c791.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Nationals19c787.11$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.898530.6%26 W · 59 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-27.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Marlins53c754$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.381,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Nationals47c752.21$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.541,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Nationals18c748.13$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.0627213.6%37 W · 235 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed Marlins51c728$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.729240.2%37 W · 55 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Nationals49c651.02$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31957744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Marlins77c620$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.245248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8868…ec0dbacked Nationals49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007443.2%32 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Marlins51c599.99$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29432651.5%168 W · 158 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Marlins78c576.96$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1476456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Marlins51c515.05$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.8473149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0364…f19bbacked Nationals47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Marlins51c499.99$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24519747.2%93 W · 104 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2a8…8466backed Marlins55c450$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.54761.7%29 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d24…a93fbacked Marlins76c450$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Nationals48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026055%143 W · 117 L+21.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Nationals49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010451%53 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a1b…ae68backed Marlins53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1885653.6%30 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f3e…c35abacked Marlins53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1885952.5%31 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ab…fdfdbacked Nationals47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1885149%25 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3813…4231backed Nationals47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1885352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbffe…1973backed Nationals47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1885343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38b5…30b1backed Nationals47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1885250%26 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc9…ac33backed Marlins53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1885354.7%29 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x177b…6c2cbacked Nationals47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1885257.7%30 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf668…32f4backed Marlins53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1885855.2%32 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f77…3a4abacked Nationals47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1885151%26 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ceb…17cfbacked Marlins53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1885154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e57…3258backed Marlins53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1885554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3aa1…59a1backed Nationals47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1885352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x700c…9ea2backed Nationals47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1885052%26 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc1…95a4backed Marlins53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1885253.8%28 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa547…c99cbacked Marlins53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1885349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x95fe…693dbacked Nationals47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1885350.9%27 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad7…672cbacked Nationals47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1885038%19 W · 31 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea46…065abacked Nationals47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1885156.9%29 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1926…add2backed Marlins53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1886051.7%31 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2741…940abacked Marlins53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1885863.8%37 W · 21 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f5e…8890backed Marlins53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1885362.3%33 W · 20 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Nationals46c399.95$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.983,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Marlins52c384.81$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.8137857.4%217 W · 161 L+1.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a69…a85abacked Nationals48c366.65$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Marlins51c313$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.373855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Nationals47c290.87$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.711,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1338…f574backed Marlins66c290.13$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbde…a050backed Marlins54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.786747.8%32 W · 35 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Marlins76c277.21$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.479,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Marlins51c275.33$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.911,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd57e…95f3backed Marlins77c261.04$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.047365.8%48 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nationals18c252$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c8…9be5backed Marlins52c251.92$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.922055%11 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Marlins56c250$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11012152.1%63 W · 58 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nationals44c250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6282…e8f2backed Nationals24c225$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.57427%20 W · 54 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb194…1063backed Nationals18c222.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e0…4983backed Nationals47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015942.8%68 W · 91 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Marlins55c211.52$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.191,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadc4…1ce3backed Nationals47c209.79$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.618446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c4…a9e7backed Nationals49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Marlins52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e40…4efabacked Marlins53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc805…e5dbbacked Marlins53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcff…0e58backed Nationals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945048%24 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7623…565dbacked Marlins53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee0f…f1dcbacked Nationals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945543.6%24 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44d3…6f65backed Nationals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945246.2%24 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1243…18cfbacked Nationals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0957…502ebacked Nationals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdcd…8364backed Nationals47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.