World Politics · resolved market
Will the Patient Focus (PF) win a seat in Norwegian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f3dbab6e3594a9a7de6eb2e5fd2da4805561324a609fb2d20a5d9cb171662f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb412…3026backed No | 40c | 14,510$5,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,700.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 59c | 11,267$6,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,678.01 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 29c | 2,222$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.38 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 70c | 2,000$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.28 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,672$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.35 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked No | 70c | 1,400$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed Yes | 61c | 1,170$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.33 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes | 33c | 908.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 77c | 900$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.7 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89a…64efbacked No | 44c | 876.75$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 59c | 813$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.04 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 56c | 700$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 29c | 686.88$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.98 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 35c | 651.5$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.63 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…02c4backed Yes | 22c | 526$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 76c | 423.82$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.56 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 52c | 386.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.76 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 30c | 350$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 349.88$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.75 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed Yes | 62c | 334.31$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 71c | 330$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.3 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 38c | 310.45$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.82 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 22c | 309.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 57c | 277.83$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2,378.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 26c | 259$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 61c | 205.89$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…676ebacked No | 40c | 200.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895f…627dbacked No | 49c | 194.07$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 7c | 190$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 75c | 189.52$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.14 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 66c | 180$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…8281backed No | 47c | 168.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88b…c56bbacked Yes | 63c | 119.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 34c | 111.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 43c | 96.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 96.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc25c…36fcbacked Yes | 32c | 94.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked No | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…971ebacked Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 70c | 74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 24c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 44c | 57.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 72c | 52.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…fe93backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7a…4880backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…6ed2backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 21c | 48.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…839abacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 33.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…5f61backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc09…4461backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.