Fifa International · resolved market
Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49b09aa1c05aa1c333efd886292d42ee57282e040bc7ef42803001b19a890c29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 51c | 13,303$6,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,764.8 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…2f1fbacked Yes | 43c | 6,838$2,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,910.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 21c | 6,481$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.11 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…ac69backed Yes | 44c | 4,788$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,701.07 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Yes | 41c | 2,500$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Yes | 64c | 2,313$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.78 | 319 | 45.1%144 W · 175 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 57c | 2,122$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.27 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 11c | 2,020$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.03 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 57c | 1,989$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.47 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…c600backed Yes | 44c | 1,590$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.44 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 57c | 1,231$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.37 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 56c | 1,025$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.16 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked No | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Yes | 42c | 998.7$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.65 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 57c | 813.17$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.51 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes | 43c | 702.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.77 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Yes | 44c | 659.09$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 44c | 472.55$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…ef6abacked Yes | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 55c | 442.22$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.22 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…7d32backed Yes | 69c | 410.17$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 43c | 401.23$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.7 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…e467backed Yes | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 43c | 353.49$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.49 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 47c | 346.79$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.8 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed No | 23c | 230$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e7…4dc9backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1654…4f2cbacked Yes | 44c | 200.6$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa317…a3f3backed Yes | 44c | 196.7$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 56c | 175.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed No | 57c | 149.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 56c | 148.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Yes | 44c | 138.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…4291backed Yes | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f6cbacked Yes | 44c | 131.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9be…27bcbacked Yes | 43c | 91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…98dbbacked Yes | 42c | 88.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…09b5backed Yes | 42c | 54.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…cd34backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…971ebacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-04?this page
- Will Georgia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?No won
- Will Georgia win on 2025-09-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.