TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Orioles vs. Padres

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oriolesof Orioles, Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$214,271
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$194,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,271 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Orioles38c61,566$23,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,368.9938043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Padres62c44,793$27,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,771.91,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa983…46a3backed Padres62c21,250$13,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,280.4111345.1%51 W · 62 L-16.4wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-28.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Padres24c16,984$4,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,152.141,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Padres48c10,604$5,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,081.8483248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Padres2c8,795$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.891,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7435…a620backed Padres57c8,162$4,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,63028646.5%133 W · 153 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a27…b9ddbacked Orioles39c5,002$1,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,051.211553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Orioles61c4,662$2,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,803.4921747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Padres26c4,254$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.5610041%41 W · 59 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Padres63c3,784$2,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,383.921,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10e…beedbacked Orioles63c3,592$2,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3363046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Padres49c3,548$1,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,721.2317243%74 W · 98 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Orioles49c3,535$1,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,818.3725551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe84…779ebacked Padres61c3,444$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100.845947.5%28 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Padres18c3,074$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.8215949.7%79 W · 80 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Padres34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.9915650.6%79 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Padres17c2,806$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.311,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Orioles37c2,500$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.9956451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Orioles52c2,409$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.4378445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Orioles57c2,278$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.219,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Padres29c2,270$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.184,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles57c2,264$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.132,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles37c2,246$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.22,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Orioles37c2,160$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.81,92253.4%1,027 W · 895 L+28.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Padres19c1,999$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.9554048.3%261 W · 279 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db7…d372backed Padres22c1,745$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.8613149.6%65 W · 66 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Orioles38c1,672$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.6350843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Orioles69c1,648$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.6912,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Orioles66c1,493$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.466,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Orioles66c1,283$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.241,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Orioles45c1,177$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.916,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Orioles38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62095950.1%480 W · 479 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc20c…81cfbacked Orioles39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Padres14c1,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14557744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Orioles48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52032042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f23…babebacked Padres61c982$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.02955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b9…3b2fbacked Padres61c968$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.48742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Orioles38c950$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58944443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Orioles38c950$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58924547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x72a3…98afbacked Orioles39c950$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.5977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick51cpaid+51.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4c4…6ea5backed Padres61c872.41$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.172751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Padres22c867$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.1115033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Orioles39c788.58$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.539842.9%42 W · 56 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Orioles40c781.25$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.7570946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbde…a050backed Padres37c762.08$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2806747.8%32 W · 35 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Padres62c646.46$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007650%38 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ba9…bfaebacked Orioles80c625.06$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.0623060%138 W · 92 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Padres3c599.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185862%12 W · 574 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Orioles37c564.6$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.751347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Padres63c558$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.9617354.9%95 W · 78 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Padres63c522$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.861,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Orioles39c512.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.8256351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Orioles39c500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30522142.1%93 W · 128 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdba1…410cbacked Padres21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Padres21c462.76$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3213852.2%72 W · 66 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f0…57b6backed Padres19c440.84$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.763228.1%9 W · 23 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-39%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Padres11c437.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.721,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ea…5590backed Orioles49c420.66$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.641369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Orioles38c396.44$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.7914949.7%74 W · 75 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb68d…9b4abacked Padres41c369.02$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-69.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x40ab…fbb5backed Orioles38c365.42$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.5616654.8%91 W · 75 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Orioles38c356.06$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.7640152.4%210 W · 191 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Orioles39c349.99$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.491,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Orioles47c338.6$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.570841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x394b…0cecbacked Orioles63c306.4$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.661643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Padres62c300$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18618749.2%92 W · 95 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Orioles38c263$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.0631347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b6…97b7backed Orioles39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.414856.3%27 W · 21 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Padres61c245.9$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15099951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Orioles38c244.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.7973149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Padres22c211.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2333137.5%124 W · 207 L-17.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Padres56c207.49$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3421246.2%98 W · 114 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Padres62c207$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4863152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x668d…23d4backed Padres61c200.05$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.031442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36e3…5e25backed Orioles40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1202263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+30%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9375…1dbdbacked Orioles46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10811257.1%64 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Orioles74c198.64$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.716947.3%80 W · 89 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Padres54c186.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d40…f95abacked Padres63c185.24$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.75955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x900b…34bcbacked Padres13c179.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.658750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Orioles43c176.74$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.741,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Padres54c168$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.728454.8%46 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2729…e171backed Padres33c166.78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.061216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.32per pick48cpaid-69.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1466…23d9backed Orioles72c166.74$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a51…4cc0backed Padres60c166.36$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910537.1%39 W · 66 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Padres21c165$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5147745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ac…76ffbacked Padres61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006847.1%32 W · 36 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-17.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Padres62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a03…47c1backed Orioles62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2911353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Padres62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a88…fd7fbacked Padres62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012558.4%73 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1888…e1cbbacked Padres62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcec6…47c1backed Padres63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006440.6%26 W · 38 L-10.5wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-30.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd094…271bbacked Padres18c156.39$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.157035.7%25 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Padres64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10039160.4%236 W · 155 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Orioles66c154.24$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7714153.9%76 W · 65 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fcf…48e1backed Orioles37c150$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.515642.9%67 W · 89 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc88f…987abacked Orioles39c150$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.51681.3%13 W · 3 L+5.8wins+0.36per pick45cpaid+85.5%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xecba…5fb4backed Padres20c138.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.84748.9%23 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.