MLB · resolved market
Orioles vs. Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26704a94bf617c085c78467ddb81c25033c63c0102669a34dbaea163955e3f92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Over | 62c | 3,832$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.84 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 38c | 2,896$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.13 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…beedbacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c1…9c35backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5453…b886backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…bf3abacked Under | 70c | 370$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 272.09$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.6 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 38c | 260.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.26 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Over | 57c | 256.75$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.35 | 255 | 51%130 W · 125 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Under | 52c | 208$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Over | 58c | 128.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 38c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed Under | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orioles vs. Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Orioles vs. PadresOrioles won
- Spread: Padres (-1.5)Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.