La Liga · resolved market
Will Villarreal win on 2025-08-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20033dd4e9bbd7c5f779ef1222c9a7d02e5abed5398103c9475b34962dbf3af3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x571c…c16abacked Yes | 42c | 5,933$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 55c | 5,162$2,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,309.1 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 56c | 4,931$2,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.74 | 241 | 45.2%109 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 58c | 3,130$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.03 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes | 44c | 3,019$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.14 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked No | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 72c | 2,586$1,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,868.38 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 41c | 2,222$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.77 | 139 | 69.8%97 W · 42 L | +30.1wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 2,015$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.37 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 44c | 1,759$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.9 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 59c | 1,304$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.26 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,254$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.16 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…93a7backed Yes | 74c | 1,249$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Yes | 44c | 1,135$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 61c | 1,064$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.84 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5df…fed4backed Yes | 39c | 926.76$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.17 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 59c | 771.99$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.52 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 47c | 592.13$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.19 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 40c | 549.4$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.38 | 283 | 42.8%121 W · 162 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 41c | 504.72$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.94 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.7wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 62c | 480.82$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.8 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 60c | 441.5$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.89 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…7d32backed No | 59c | 438.03$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.56 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 70c | 400$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…5590backed Yes | 70c | 371.9$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 42c | 337.8$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.91 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked No | 60c | 298$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.2 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 59c | 251$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.91 | 158 | 51.3%81 W · 77 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa317…a3f3backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Yes | 42c | 226.24$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 46c | 215.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 48c | 209.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 140 | 67.1%94 W · 46 L | +17.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 73c | 171.06$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.87 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51a7…30abbacked No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…3307backed Yes | 47c | 156.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 66c | 154$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 41c | 148$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 532 | 42.3%225 W · 307 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed No | 60c | 131.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…bd8ebacked Yes | 47c | 128.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91a7…cac6backed Yes | 45c | 96.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…c622backed Yes | 45c | 88.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff8…3011backed Yes | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…1d59backed No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -7.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed No | 57c | 81.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cf…f5aebacked Yes | 39c | 77.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Yes | 42c | 74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 59c | 66.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 144 | 62.5%90 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…4f78backed Yes | 45c | 66.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 60c | 62.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 202 | 55%111 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a5…eb80backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 46c | 48.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…1d65backed Yes | 75c | 48.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Yes | 42c | 48.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…714dbacked Yes | 42c | 47.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 43c | 46.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…3166backed No | 66c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 41c | 40.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 58c | 34.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…36d8backed Yes | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 59c | 25.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 290 | 53.4%155 W · 135 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51a9…2b29backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 41c | 24.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 61c | 17.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Villarreal win on 2025-08-31?this page
- Will Celta Vigo vs. Villarreal end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-08-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.