Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Juncheng Shang
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75ef40eee16d6d7de2958a0a6b9566fb0505daf4d07dca0e3234c118afd39c15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bellucciof Bellucci, Shang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Shang | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Bellucci | 50c | 1,745$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.4 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…69e7backed Bellucci | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Shang | 42c | 818.66$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.72 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Shang | 41c | 548.83$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.02 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Shang | 47c | 517.55$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.25 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc276…c2d9backed Bellucci | 53c | 517.55$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Shang | 22c | 455$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Bellucci | 59c | 413.56$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.56 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Bellucci | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Shang | 36c | 283.22$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Shang | 41c | 267$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.47 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Shang | 11c | 240.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Bellucci | 57c | 239.61$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bellucci | 66c | 232$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Shang | 40c | 230$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Shang | 44c | 227.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Shang | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Bellucci | 57c | 222.07$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.91 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Shang | 48c | 213$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Bellucci | 72c | 209.84$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bellucci | 56c | 207.49$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Shang | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Shang | 62c | 197.28$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Shang | 43c | 188.39$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…5590backed Shang | 33c | 166.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Shang | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Shang | 30c | 116.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…da98backed Bellucci | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Bellucci | 58c | 92.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Bellucci | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Bellucci | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8c2bbacked Bellucci | 59c | 54.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…f067backed Shang | 37c | 53.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked Bellucci | 67c | 50.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Bellucci | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Shang | 39c | 49.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Bellucci | 58c | 40.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Bellucci | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Bellucci | 59c | 35.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Bellucci | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Bellucci | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…c78fbacked Bellucci | 56c | 29.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968c…1e04backed Bellucci | 60c | 29.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee9…d29abacked Bellucci | 60c | 28.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…6dbabacked Bellucci | 58c | 26.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…40a2backed Bellucci | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Bellucci | 74c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.