Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Lorenzo Musetti
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec226129291c23caeda0f07f97473ac991b7092bfcca0b57d7920708907c1cdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Musetti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $635,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $573,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $635,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc56f…75efbacked Musetti | 6c | 94,165$5,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,649.9 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked Musetti | 3c | 39,624$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.74 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Musetti | 5c | 25,540$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.77 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Musetti | 1c | 25,248$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.71 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Musetti | 3c | 19,474$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.71 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Musetti | 5c | 17,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Musetti | 4c | 16,121$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.83 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Musetti | 5c | 13,300$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Musetti | 5c | 12,936$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.16 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Musetti | 3c | 11,330$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Musetti | 5c | 11,131$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.91 | 457 | 37.9%173 W · 284 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Musetti | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Musetti | 6c | 10,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Musetti | 5c | 6,282$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Musetti | 5c | 5,800$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Musetti | 1c | 5,467$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Musetti | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 84 | 29.8%25 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Musetti | 5c | 4,325$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.5 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…9f55backed Musetti | 2c | 4,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…c791backed Musetti | 6c | 2,750$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Musetti | 5c | 2,682$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.94 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Musetti | 6c | 2,333$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.98 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Musetti | 4c | 2,050$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Musetti | 5c | 2,020$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfc…b035backed Musetti | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…e6c5backed Musetti | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 178 | 18%32 W · 146 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Musetti | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Musetti | 4c | 1,616$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Musetti | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Musetti | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9406…9071backed Musetti | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Musetti | 2c | 1,215$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…512bbacked Musetti | 6c | 1,116$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5aa…5912backed Musetti | 2c | 1,068$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Musetti | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Musetti | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…ded5backed Musetti | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…d1fbbacked Musetti | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb151…b4d5backed Musetti | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Musetti | 5c | 961.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 513 | 42.9%220 W · 293 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Musetti | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 198 | 35.4%70 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd5…81b0backed Musetti | 6c | 747.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Musetti | 5c | 733.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 139 | 34.5%48 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Musetti | 4c | 654.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5387…c91ebacked Musetti | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Musetti | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Musetti | 6c | 599.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Musetti | 6c | 550$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Musetti | 5c | 533.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…4e26backed Musetti | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…e1b8backed Musetti | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Musetti | 5c | 443.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…c093backed Musetti | 5c | 420$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…d41ebacked Musetti | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…1934backed Musetti | 6c | 384.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…3f5fbacked Musetti | 5c | 360$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…20b1backed Musetti | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d38…fc8ebacked Musetti | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e83…0eb6backed Musetti | 6c | 309.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Musetti | 7c | 285.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Musetti | 7c | 264.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 671 | 31.3%210 W · 461 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…5ba6backed Musetti | 6c | 263.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Musetti | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Musetti | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…e7bebacked Musetti | 6c | 214.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…7645backed Musetti | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Musetti | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03a6…1198backed Musetti | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.