TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Pegula
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$279,888
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$301,536

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,888 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83b9…6124backed Pegula25c26,454$6,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,611.663452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Sabalenka75c24,450$18,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0483458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Pegula25c19,196$4,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,707.799935.4%35 W · 64 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc56f…75efbacked Pegula11c18,173$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9994330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843d…e617backed Sabalenka75c16,269$12,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,080.964456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Sabalenka66c14,021$9,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,815.721127.3%3 W · 8 L-4.5wins-0.41per pick68cpaid-61.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Pegula22c12,309$2,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,754.212657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed Sabalenka78c8,999$7,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,982.731450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x081c…f010backed Pegula26c8,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,079.992733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Pegula28c7,000$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.6167249.6%333 W · 339 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Pegula23c6,610$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.2245737.9%173 W · 284 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0344…a65ebacked Sabalenka75c6,454$4,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.411662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Sabalenka74c4,500$3,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1706271%44 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Sabalenka76c4,442$3,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.1529028.3%82 W · 208 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Pegula11c4,099$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Pegula55c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20044360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Sabalenka75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00015957.2%91 W · 68 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Pegula25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008429.8%25 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Pegula26c3,858$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019835.4%70 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Pegula18c3,698$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.29130.8%28 W · 63 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Sabalenka74c3,561$2,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.0811852.5%62 W · 56 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pegula25c3,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75062742.4%266 W · 361 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Pegula26c3,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7808052.5%42 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Sabalenka75c2,717$2,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.2911652.6%61 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Pegula24c2,357$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Pegula21c2,349$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.1365242.8%279 W · 373 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Pegula25c2,167$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.8414949%73 W · 76 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3868…5683backed Pegula27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5407330.1%22 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Sabalenka73c2,000$1,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.7816140.4%65 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Sabalenka73c1,945$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.617057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Sabalenka68c1,898$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.941050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pegula33c1,887$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.8611,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Pegula27c1,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014546.2%67 W · 78 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Sabalenka62c1,845$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.445151%26 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ea…6254backed Pegula29c1,749$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.161526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x736f…d0c5backed Sabalenka76c1,711$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.53771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Pegula18c1,600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2942733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Sabalenka72c1,591$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.5614663%92 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3877…dcf0backed Pegula10c1,550$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb2…6b94backed Pegula20c1,521$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007041.4%29 W · 41 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Sabalenka76c1,502$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.5330847.7%147 W · 161 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Pegula26c1,500$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38522737.4%85 W · 142 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sabalenka78c1,481$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.261,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255e…4979backed Sabalenka75c1,200$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Sabalenka57c1,183$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.656747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Sabalenka53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4709245.7%42 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Sabalenka58c1,000$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.522835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab07…1e7bbacked Pegula10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001361.5%8 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.30per pick31cpaid+78.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Pegula26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26022629.2%66 W · 160 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd4a…048ebacked Pegula25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Pegula25c996.21$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.053933.3%13 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pegula25c961.64$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.411,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Pegula26c961.54$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd49b…abffbacked Pegula26c961.54$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506921.7%15 W · 54 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-46.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pegula25c884$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22195140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Sabalenka67c803$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.031,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Sabalenka75c788$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19714843.9%65 W · 83 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83c8…5d9ebacked Sabalenka70c716.14$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.143151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Pegula14c710$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.42825%7 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Sabalenka71c702.78$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.7814243%61 W · 81 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ba9…bfaebacked Sabalenka75c666.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6717754.8%97 W · 80 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Sabalenka75c666.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6725244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Pegula17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1027744.2%34 W · 43 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48e3…c148backed Pegula25c600$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15015724.8%39 W · 118 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Pegula26c600$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15629634.1%101 W · 195 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c80…a608backed Pegula53c522.49$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.922927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed Sabalenka74c494.65$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.612231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…5bd1backed Sabalenka67c492.48$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.882725.9%7 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-25.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed Pegula16c484.62$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Sabalenka77c389.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1963942.4%271 W · 368 L+1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70d2…f395backed Sabalenka71c387.62$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.623070%21 W · 9 L+6.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+44.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9406…9071backed Pegula26c382.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aea…c5f2backed Pegula27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Sabalenka74c340$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.413935.3%49 W · 90 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Sabalenka70c331$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8391050.2%457 W · 453 L-20.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d9…3aa4backed Sabalenka79c325.88$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x431b…1d9cbacked Sabalenka67c324.4$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.052157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1466…23d9backed Sabalenka68c317.04$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.04771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Pegula26c308.72$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2755143.4%239 W · 312 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d4…da34backed Sabalenka65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2729…e171backed Pegula31c300$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc235…12cfbacked Sabalenka71c299.99$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d38…fc8ebacked Pegula39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Pegula31c241.28$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe95d…b2a1backed Sabalenka74c224.16$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.161070%7 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ed…f7b2backed Sabalenka74c220$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Sabalenka46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3929553.2%157 W · 138 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-12.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked Pegula14c213.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303321.2%7 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-41.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Sabalenka71c212.06$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0621454.7%117 W · 97 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…06c9backed Pegula26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026045%117 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5998…141cbacked Pegula28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503663.9%23 W · 13 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Pegula46c176.38$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.783650%18 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Sabalenka74c154$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.047037.1%26 W · 44 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38eb…5257backed Pegula14c151.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.475326.4%14 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefa5…b417backed Pegula24c143.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sabalenka74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1448043.3%208 W · 272 L-1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3149…9762backed Sabalenka74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.145265.4%34 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed Sabalenka74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.142250%11 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a4f…c4f2backed Sabalenka74c135$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.133134.7%115 W · 216 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Sabalenka75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3373147.9%350 W · 381 L-16.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.