Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alex de Minaur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6f1264b06691641be26dd223020055056dc6e2104ac1fbd3f9abe55db18fe0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- de Minaurof Altmaier, de Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc56f…75efbacked Altmaier | 19c | 21,054$3,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999.2 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Altmaier | 7c | 10,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Altmaier | 7c | 6,085$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.67 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Altmaier | 8c | 4,786$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.35 | 149 | 33.6%50 W · 99 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Altmaier | 11c | 4,500$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.68 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Altmaier | 10c | 3,797$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.74 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Altmaier | 25c | 3,333$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.18 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Altmaier | 7c | 2,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Altmaier | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Altmaier | 8c | 1,305$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…d663backed Altmaier | 5c | 1,266$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Altmaier | 17c | 1,190$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.51 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Altmaier | 7c | 1,050$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed de Minaur | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Altmaier | 16c | 976.21$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.19 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b713backed Altmaier | 11c | 958.33$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Altmaier | 27c | 854.6$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.89 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Altmaier | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…8733backed Altmaier | 7c | 740.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Altmaier | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Altmaier | 14c | 530.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Altmaier | 8c | 513.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Altmaier | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Altmaier | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked de Minaur | 80c | 450$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Altmaier | 10c | 430.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…6e64backed Altmaier | 10c | 411$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Altmaier | 12c | 350$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Altmaier | 16c | 299.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Altmaier | 9c | 235$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Altmaier | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Altmaier | 10c | 201.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Altmaier | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…bf0bbacked Altmaier | 16c | 185.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa507…2468backed Altmaier | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d40…b4ecbacked Altmaier | 11c | 170$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed de Minaur | 80c | 125.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Altmaier | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…9c10backed Altmaier | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…927dbacked Altmaier | 17c | 118.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f96…56c1backed de Minaur | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.