Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Carlos Alcaraz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f917bce9aab968368ea61449d437236ebc86e9da30fc98d08c07435d7967c7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Lehecka, Alcaraz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $572,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $580,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $572,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24c2…10cebacked Lehecka | 4c | 142,678$5,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,912.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…75efbacked Lehecka | 9c | 56,383$5,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,044.65 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Lehecka | 7c | 50,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Lehecka | 7c | 43,499$3,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,021.74 | 139 | 34.5%48 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Lehecka | 7c | 36,708$2,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,569.56 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Lehecka | 6c | 29,584$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.64 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Lehecka | 7c | 15,444$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.85 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…52e2backed Lehecka | 9c | 11,314$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed Lehecka | 6c | 7,559$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.53 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Lehecka | 9c | 7,500$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Lehecka | 3c | 6,369$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.77 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Lehecka | 7c | 6,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Lehecka | 8c | 5,399$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.95 | 457 | 37.9%173 W · 284 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Lehecka | 7c | 5,388$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.76 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Lehecka | 7c | 4,286$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Lehecka | 6c | 4,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Lehecka | 7c | 3,556$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.92 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Lehecka | 3c | 2,738$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 198 | 35.4%70 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed Lehecka | 8c | 2,488$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Lehecka | 1c | 2,316$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Lehecka | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398f…3685backed Lehecka | 3c | 2,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Lehecka | 2c | 1,970$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Lehecka | 8c | 1,531$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.51 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Lehecka | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Lehecka | 8c | 1,104$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Lehecka | 4c | 1,097$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Lehecka | 3c | 999.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked Lehecka | 10c | 999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Lehecka | 4c | 897.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Lehecka | 4c | 800$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Lehecka | 8c | 789.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -77%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Lehecka | 7c | 600$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Lehecka | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +84%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Lehecka | 7c | 599.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Lehecka | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc3…8fffbacked Lehecka | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -72%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2729…e171backed Lehecka | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…ec44backed Lehecka | 8c | 399.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Lehecka | 3c | 375.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…f010backed Lehecka | 4c | 349$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Lehecka | 5c | 294.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Lehecka | 7c | 252$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…5b58backed Lehecka | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939f…f057backed Lehecka | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Lehecka | 8c | 249.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lehecka | 6c | 249.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed Lehecka | 6c | 248.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Lehecka | 5c | 245$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6657…a414backed Lehecka | 7c | 228.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Lehecka | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6907…1c8fbacked Lehecka | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…7cedbacked Lehecka | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd766…acfcbacked Lehecka | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Lehecka | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.