Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Yoshihito Nishioka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bd3494e19c648e8d4a5495bbce047cd528bd14723e19959e978d31c7489cae7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiafoeof Tiafoe, Nishioka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Nishioka | 9c | 3,254$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.67 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Nishioka | 12c | 3,066$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.1 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Nishioka | 11c | 2,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Nishioka | 10c | 2,166$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.61 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Nishioka | 15c | 2,049$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.48 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Nishioka | 14c | 1,352$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.28 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Nishioka | 10c | 1,005$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nishioka | 13c | 776.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nishioka | 13c | 745.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Nishioka | 16c | 638.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nishioka | 10c | 482.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Nishioka | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Nishioka | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Nishioka | 14c | 276$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Nishioka | 13c | 235.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Nishioka | 14c | 225.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Nishioka | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Nishioka | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -77%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Nishioka | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Nishioka | 17c | 76.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.