Us Politics · resolved market
Gavin Newsom arrested by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58df0e27a866095f90101409785781551ced44b8046f6aff9787f94e8ed1780e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,018,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $749,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,018,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 0c | 120,646$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.58 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 0c | 62,242$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 1c | 56,926$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.49 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 1c | 45,678$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.42 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 1c | 44,355$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.35 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 1c | 26,256$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.56 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac3…e93bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +220.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…da65backed Yes | 1c | 19,705$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 19,528$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 1c | 15,248$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.45 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 2c | 15,039$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.1 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x126b…a516backed Yes | 1c | 14,576$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 0c | 13,723$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 1c | 12,933$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes | 1c | 12,545$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa92c…b4d6backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…01f8backed Yes | 2c | 11,974$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 10,744$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…eddbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,347$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,063$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…cbc1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…df7bbacked Yes | 2c | 8,353$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb158…2788backed Yes | 0c | 7,618$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,229$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.82 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,957$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…9501backed Yes | 0c | 6,842$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…8eaabacked Yes | 1c | 6,483$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…cf9ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 1c | 5,586$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…1474backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 0c | 4,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…499bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,800$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…bfddbacked Yes | 2c | 4,798$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c1…a7adbacked Yes | 1c | 4,450$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 2c | 4,290$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…d2b3backed Yes | 2c | 3,560$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…3219backed Yes | 1c | 3,367$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 0c | 3,145$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11df…291bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,052$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 1c | 3,050$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x573c…4a48backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450c…416fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,925$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 1c | 2,780$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab5…37c4backed Yes | 2c | 2,637$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ff…a806backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…99eebacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b06…98cebacked Yes | 1c | 2,179$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe1…991abacked Yes | 2c | 2,175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dd…304cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,143$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…3ccbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,067$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…1870backed Yes | 2c | 2,019$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ed…a350backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…f593backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…0a83backed Yes | 1c | 1,703$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…0333backed Yes | 1c | 1,644$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,464$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc334…0e88backed Yes | 1c | 1,424$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c9…645dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,393$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes | 2c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…f5cbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…8a6fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,216$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da2…59e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48d…44fabacked Yes | 2c | 952.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…b1c6backed Yes | 2c | 894.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 2c | 526.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.