Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump withdraw the U.S. from NATO in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58f04e4d6d4207be5ffcaa8e12ceaaff491bea2f66a67f1c701744e59c3a920c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $228,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $232,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74e3…9d1abacked Yes | 16c | 61,188$9,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,790.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 80c | 9,416$7,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.86 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked Yes | 16c | 8,900$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…269bbacked Yes | 27c | 3,770$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 2,693$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…b251backed Yes | 19c | 2,305$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 15c | 1,711$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.76 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f3…0545backed Yes | 15c | 1,405$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 13c | 1,383$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.47 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb799…c753backed Yes | 16c | 1,319$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6201…6e23backed Yes | 6c | 1,256$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 1,128$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.19 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed No | 77c | 1,120$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 12c | 1,094$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.27 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e2…1546backed Yes | 18c | 1,094$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91cb…c0b8backed Yes | 15c | 1,020$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 12c | 986.23$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 983.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…5c8fbacked Yes | 4c | 982$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x458c…c961backed Yes | 6c | 877.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 14c | 860$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 827.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed Yes | 16c | 655.67$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x448e…cdb7backed Yes | 24c | 626.75$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 16c | 604.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cdafbacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 545.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed Yes | 24c | 541$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…82f9backed Yes | 21c | 520.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 12c | 500$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 4c | 496$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532d…080fbacked Yes | 9c | 480$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 22c | 430.23$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed Yes | 7c | 382.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…cabebacked Yes | 5c | 364$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0309…22d1backed Yes | 7c | 357.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 9c | 288.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…f622backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…9fd5backed Yes | 17c | 279.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…00fdbacked Yes | 17c | 233.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 16c | 225$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 12c | 222$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200b…3dedbacked Yes | 7c | 215.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…c1b8backed Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1939…0f41backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed Yes | 8c | 199.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…7bfdbacked Yes | 8c | 194.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…c5e0backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…e197backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…bf63backed Yes | 16c | 156.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…a6a2backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 27c | 148.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked Yes | 24c | 144.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 23c | 140$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb78…869bbacked Yes | 16c | 135.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…ee77backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…e40dbacked Yes | 14c | 110.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5f…9249backed Yes | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407f…cab8backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41dd…e98bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6631…3808backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 94.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 80.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…eabdbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…bee9backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa370…6b5bbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57f7…9945backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.