NHL · resolved market
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a5938f0de24f23b4ea57a31078bdbbe6167841e05d3463e2faa3745727df6c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hurricanesof Hurricanes, Golden Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cb3…8ed1backed Golden Knights | 63c | 6,000$3,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,780 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Hurricanes | 37c | 5,000$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Hurricanes | 36c | 2,368$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,518.65 | 619 | 50.1%310 W · 309 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Golden Knights | 67c | 1,490$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.19 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Golden Knights | 64c | 1,449$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.19 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Golden Knights | 64c | 1,162$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.44 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Hurricanes | 37c | 1,005$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.29 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Golden Knights | 64c | 907.4$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.74 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Hurricanes | 36c | 834$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.76 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5d90backed Golden Knights | 71c | 718.61$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Golden Knights | 63c | 613.29$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.42 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Hurricanes | 41c | 603$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.38 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Hurricanes | 33c | 563.56$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.99 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Hurricanes | 36c | 490$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.6 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Golden Knights | 59c | 419.41$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.66 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Golden Knights | 63c | 410.64$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.39 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…84ecbacked Hurricanes | 37c | 407.7$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.85 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Golden Knights | 74c | 401.71$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.89 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Golden Knights | 37c | 400$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Hurricanes | 35c | 398.78$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.79 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Golden Knights | 65c | 397.74$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Hurricanes | 74c | 340.4$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 128 | 59.4%76 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Hurricanes | 37c | 325.97$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.97 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Hurricanes | 70c | 295.88$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Golden Knights | 63c | 281$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.24 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Golden Knights | 27c | 273.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Hurricanes | 58c | 271.04$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.97 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Hurricanes | 37c | 267.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.57 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…be3bbacked Hurricanes | 45c | 232.6$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Hurricanes | 71c | 211.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Hurricanes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Golden Knights | 65c | 184.62$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Hurricanes | 42c | 168.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.07 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…9e94backed Golden Knights | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5727…12fdbacked Hurricanes | 41c | 161.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…105abacked Golden Knights | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Hurricanes | 37c | 146.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 248 | 37.9%94 W · 154 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Golden Knights | 65c | 142.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Hurricanes | 31c | 137$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…570cbacked Golden Knights | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…7defbacked Hurricanes | 23c | 131.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.82 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x525b…c7c7backed Hurricanes | 45c | 125$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…e828backed Golden Knights | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Golden Knights | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 208 | 55.8%116 W · 92 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Hurricanes | 35c | 112.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Golden Knights | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Hurricanes | 29c | 104$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Golden Knights | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Hurricanes | 35c | 95.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Hurricanes | 32c | 93.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Golden Knights | 52c | 90.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…f137backed Hurricanes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Hurricanes | 36c | 82.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…edc9backed Golden Knights | 66c | 76.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Golden Knights | 65c | 75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Golden Knights | 65c | 67.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Golden Knights | 78c | 67.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed Golden Knights | 65c | 64.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Golden Knights | 65c | 63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Golden Knights | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Hurricanes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3f…6500backed Hurricanes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Golden Knights | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Golden Knights | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Golden Knights | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Hurricanes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 719 | 52.4%377 W · 342 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Hurricanes | 36c | 41.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…869ebacked Hurricanes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Golden Knights | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ab…ecebbacked Golden Knights | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…d737backed Golden Knights | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Golden Knights | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Golden Knights | 47c | 27.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Golden Knights | 43c | 23.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Golden Knights | 64c | 20.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Golden Knights | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Golden Knights | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Golden Knights | 79c | 18.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)this page
- Golden Knights vs. HurricanesHurricanes won
- Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 3.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Hurricanes won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-2.5)Hurricanes won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5)Golden Knights won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-3.5)Golden Knights won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-4.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.