Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Learner Tien
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e79c2da3d92dab83609091821ca56045ddffca91795cffd9c1469ebe395449e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Djokovicof Djokovic, Tien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Tien | 14c | 35,366$5,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,069.3 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Tien | 11c | 7,500$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Tien | 16c | 5,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Tien | 14c | 4,390$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.6 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Tien | 13c | 3,500$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Tien | 11c | 2,000$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.65 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Tien | 11c | 1,925$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.1 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Tien | 14c | 1,856$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.84 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Tien | 10c | 1,636$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.96 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Tien | 5c | 1,600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Tien | 15c | 1,200$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tien | 13c | 1,169$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.32 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Tien | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Tien | 13c | 865$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tien | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…279fbacked Tien | 20c | 599.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb60c…0bd7backed Tien | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…403dbacked Tien | 13c | 216$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Djokovic | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Tien | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Tien | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Tien | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Tien | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tien | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Tien | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Tien | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 579 | 39.7%230 W · 349 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.