Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Tehran before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60342343fe225378762b74fcd62b085849a03c50d6ae4b57404b86fdce920fbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 6c | 11,595$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.46 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…5e48backed No | 2c | 9,206$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 8,378$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 5,762$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 3c | 1,992$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 3c | 1,666$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,559$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.47 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,346$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.11 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 46c | 796.05$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.95 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 77c | 769.98$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.73 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…81eabacked Yes | 21c | 479.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +107%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 48c | 459.49$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.92 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed Yes | 23c | 430.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.33 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 21c | 429.29$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 400$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 320.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.36 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 300.1$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 78c | 210$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.72 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 23c | 161.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.85 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 28c | 138.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.63 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 80c | 134.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7797…aa57backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked No | 79c | 98.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…8ae2backed No | 77c | 77.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…baa4backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…90a6backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 78c | 59.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 76c | 57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 40.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…a106backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 57c | 18.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.