Middle East · resolved market
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe85aeb96206810995c8a3b0c045f93fa48037c1581c90ea536bbb139efe2655d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $770,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $757,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $770,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb66…3103backed Yes | 9c | 83,453$7,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,275.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8468…10c2backed Yes | 9c | 29,796$2,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,774.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 8c | 29,588$2,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,288.09 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e23…5411backed Yes | 3c | 14,522$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 12,496$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.96 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 10,780$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 4c | 10,600$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.77 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x707c…995fbacked Yes | 6c | 10,574$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…df7bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 6c | 9,888$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.77 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 0c | 8,839$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Yes | 8c | 8,571$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 8c | 8,521$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.46 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,872$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.28 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa300…72eebacked Yes | 8c | 6,700$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 6,637$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.54 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 7c | 6,323$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.51 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 5c | 5,296$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.52 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…dc48backed Yes | 10c | 5,021$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32fe…025fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 10c | 4,843$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 3c | 4,633$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.24 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 4,301$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.42 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 4c | 4,105$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…2783backed Yes | 7c | 4,081$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,924$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 3,884$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.98 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x595b…d58bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,456$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 5c | 3,450$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.45 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 3,438$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 9c | 3,296$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +299.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c62…7c5cbacked Yes | 11c | 3,212$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 6c | 3,037$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.93 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 7c | 2,947$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.83 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388c…81b0backed Yes | 8c | 2,907$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf4…8108backed Yes | 12c | 2,549$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,532$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 5c | 2,415$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.22 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f4…90e7backed Yes | 7c | 2,199$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,198$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.71 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 2,108$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…f294backed Yes | 7c | 2,050$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.2 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec1d…5de1backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…91bdbacked Yes | 10c | 1,966$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…3567backed Yes | 4c | 1,923$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 7c | 1,884$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.53 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 6c | 1,800$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc53b…7049backed Yes | 6c | 1,768$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f14…f009backed Yes | 7c | 1,690$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cca…1a17backed Yes | 6c | 1,589$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…289cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,537$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.42 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc9…9d68backed Yes | 7c | 1,504$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…794dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,449$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 2c | 1,384$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…cd9dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,377$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,325$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…4a2abacked Yes | 8c | 1,302$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 4c | 1,270$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…19f4backed Yes | 11c | 1,249$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…b0debacked Yes | 9c | 1,245$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…8e7ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,140$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…8422backed Yes | 4c | 1,133$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 8c | 1,100$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.86 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…a9fbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,098$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 5c | 1,092$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…90ccbacked Yes | 5c | 1,083$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcab…d73bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…c533backed Yes | 10c | 952.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 5c | 847.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…8911backed Yes | 6c | 786.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…a1b2backed Yes | 10c | 759.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 697.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…b996backed Yes | 9c | 671.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 6c | 655.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -85%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf85…86e1backed Yes | 5c | 633.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…b294backed Yes | 5c | 600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51c1…9771backed Yes | 5c | 586.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…f2bcbacked Yes | 4c | 585.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a12…d441backed Yes | 7c | 558.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…7375backed Yes | 9c | 543.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094d…d7a7backed Yes | 4c | 538.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 5c | 527.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Yes | 10c | 518.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…39e6backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c24…b8d4backed Yes | 9c | 476.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a4…4219backed Yes | 11c | 468.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 448$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 7c | 442.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae9b…2926backed Yes | 6c | 437.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…e6a4backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…3d74backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502a…719abacked Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ec…f7debacked Yes | 13c | 397.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee1…d5bfbacked Yes | 5c | 396.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 7c | 389.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2abb…0045backed Yes | 6c | 385.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 8c | 381.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.