TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran before August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$770,701
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$757,848

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $770,701 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb66…3103backed Yes9c83,453$7,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,275.9140%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8468…10c2backed Yes9c29,796$2,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,774.39520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes8c29,588$2,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,288.092528%7 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e23…5411backed Yes3c14,522$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c12,496$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.96581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes0c10,780$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.741879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked Yes4c10,600$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.7780%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x707c…995fbacked Yes6c10,574$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.06333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed Yes3c10,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3202642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x389c…df7bbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes6c9,888$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.771118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x961a…50c7backed Yes0c8,839$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-78%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Yes8c8,571$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.43862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes8c8,521$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.463215.6%5 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes2c7,872$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.2813419.4%26 W · 108 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa300…72eebacked Yes8c6,700$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes5c6,637$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.5442120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea6…a363backed Yes7c6,323$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.514422.7%10 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes5c5,296$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.5243212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…dc48backed Yes10c5,021$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32fe…025fbacked Yes6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes10c4,843$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.452347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes3c4,633$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.248617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes5c4,301$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.426942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e11…b846backed Yes4c4,105$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.431136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63c3…2783backed Yes7c4,081$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.6770%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes1c3,924$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.04147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-90.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes4c3,884$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.9820823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x595b…d58bbacked Yes3c3,456$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.411361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes5c3,450$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.4512333.3%41 W · 82 L+13.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+28.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c3,438$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.732078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Yes9c3,296$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.261546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick30cpaid+299.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c62…7c5cbacked Yes11c3,212$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes6c3,037$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.9315234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes7c2,947$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.833030%9 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x388c…81b0backed Yes8c2,907$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcf4…8108backed Yes12c2,549$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes4c2,532$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes5c2,415$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2249023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f4…90e7backed Yes7c2,199$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes5c2,198$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes5c2,108$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.951235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52ca…f294backed Yes7c2,050$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.24216.7%7 W · 35 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-64.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed4f…e25abacked Yes6c2,000$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.61330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec1d…5de1backed Yes6c2,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-83.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad9…91bdbacked Yes10c1,966$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ae…3567backed Yes4c1,923$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754022.5%9 W · 31 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-39.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes7c1,884$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.539711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb984…2a41backed Yes6c1,800$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.67429.7%22 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc53b…7049backed Yes6c1,768$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f14…f009backed Yes7c1,690$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cca…1a17backed Yes6c1,589$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-71.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22c3…289cbacked Yes9c1,537$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.422842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc9…9d68backed Yes7c1,504$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ee…794dbacked Yes7c1,449$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002532%8 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…63a3backed Yes2c1,384$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222520%5 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8df…cd9dbacked Yes7c1,377$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c1,325$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.871,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…4a2abacked Yes8c1,302$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.131921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes4c1,270$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.813629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbea…19f4backed Yes11c1,249$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.64528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x129b…b0debacked Yes9c1,245$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06df…8e7ebacked Yes9c1,140$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ecc…8422backed Yes4c1,133$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502313%3 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-72.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes8c1,100$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.862334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e8b…a9fbbacked Yes9c1,098$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991010%1 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-87%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes5c1,092$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608721.8%19 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e1c…90ccbacked Yes5c1,083$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcab…d73bbacked Yes5c1,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.78742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+85.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cdb…c533backed Yes10c952.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes5c847.53$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.427413.5%10 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-54.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f43…8911backed Yes6c786.52$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c96…a1b2backed Yes10c759.47$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes6c697.58$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1314129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2566…b996backed Yes9c671.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes6c655.2$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.55147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-85%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf85…86e1backed Yes5c633.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.794431.8%14 W · 30 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bcc…b294backed Yes5c600$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.860%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51c1…9771backed Yes5c586.15$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick11cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef7a…f2bcbacked Yes4c585.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2460%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a12…d441backed Yes7c558.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d26…7375backed Yes9c543.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x094d…d7a7backed Yes4c538.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes5c527.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7842738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x03e5…dd0fbacked Yes10c518.5$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.851936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+48.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x587b…39e6backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes7c500$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c24…b8d4backed Yes9c476.09$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a4…4219backed Yes11c468.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c448$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x675c…2224backed Yes7c442.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314520%9 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae9b…2926backed Yes6c437.76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee89…e6a4backed Yes11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.51650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdfa…3d74backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x502a…719abacked Yes4c400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.440%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ec…f7debacked Yes13c397.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ee1…d5bfbacked Yes5c396.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.651526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes7c389.61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.06966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+69.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2abb…0045backed Yes6c385.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2580%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab69…2283backed Yes8c381.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.881952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.