TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Diego Padresof Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,736
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,820

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,736 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres77c18,888$14,465 inWon+$4,423.6611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds27c6,263$1,691 inLost-$1,690.9112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Cincinnati Reds22c4,255$936 inLost-$935.998633.7%29 W · 57 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Cincinnati Reds21c4,240$890 inLost-$890.423538.3%90 W · 145 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Cincinnati Reds21c2,985$627 inLost-$626.7519546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Cincinnati Reds21c952.38$200 inLost-$20011454.4%62 W · 52 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres78c541.05$424 inWon+$116.628,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed San Diego Padres78c440$343 inWon+$96.889053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres78c400$312 inWon+$886,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f55…8956backed Cincinnati Reds28c312.04$87 inLost-$87.3714858.8%87 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Cincinnati Reds21c201.25$42 inLost-$42.251,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Cincinnati Reds21c184$39 inLost-$38.6475049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Cincinnati Reds20c150$30 inLost-$3028639.2%112 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe720…2bb3backed Cincinnati Reds20c130$26 inLost-$26728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacee…afddbacked Cincinnati Reds26c115.38$30 inLost-$3021751.6%112 W · 105 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x700b…8d0bbacked Cincinnati Reds28c93.61$26 inLost-$26.218944.9%40 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Cincinnati Reds28c63.79$18 inLost-$17.8646952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Cincinnati Reds22c55.94$12 inLost-$12.261,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds38c54.07$20 inLost-$20.444,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres72c33.43$24 inWon+$9.368,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Cincinnati Reds47c31$15 inLost-$14.666,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.