MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b224df24632ca5b4269d8040eeacf69c1d9bc9d61238bafbe9659841277a2a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 2,635$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 2,393$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.33 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 67c | 822.24$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.37 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 543.4$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.81 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 60c | 483.33$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.33 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 43c | 421.01$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.47 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 40c | 360$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 28c | 273$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 60c | 271.42$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.73 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 32c | 259.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 51c | 193.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 21c | 191.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 40c | 175.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…9ea9backed Under | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…6ebbbacked Under | 31c | 161.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de3…26fdbacked Under | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 45c | 142.72$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 36c | 137.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 42c | 137.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.41 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 54c | 106.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 54c | 96.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 63c | 78.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 44c | 78.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 33c | 74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 70.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 60c | 66.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 41c | 56.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 45c | 53.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 52c | 42.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed Under | 67c | 36.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 72c | 30.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 42c | 28.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 46c | 23.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0783…00d3backed Over | 61c | 17.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 63c | 16.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…1bf1backed Over | 78c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.