MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa9948dcb627b82b1e05284005f1dc13b178d60058ee77bc0901826f973d6dff

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres
Resolved: Jun 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $64,294
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $64,430

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,294 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1136…0c2ebacked San Diego Padres	59c	15,463$9,123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,122.94	133	40.6%54 W · 79 L	-14.4wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres	72c	9,201$6,652 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,652.08	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Cincinnati Reds	55c	8,229$4,545 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,683.71	603	50.1%302 W · 301 L	-10.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds	41c	8,095$3,316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,779.21	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde49…fe85backed Cincinnati Reds	54c	8,000$4,319 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,680.94	484	51%247 W · 237 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds	29c	6,456$1,878 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,578.63	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked San Diego Padres	45c	4,573$2,058 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,057.94	1,865	52%970 W · 895 L	+50.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc5b…3f6abacked San Diego Padres	46c	2,558$1,176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,176.46	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds	17c	2,492$424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,068.08	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds	24c	1,936$471 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,465.14	4,381	44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L	+77.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres	59c	1,350$796 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$796.5	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Diego Padres	58c	1,343$774 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$774.15	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds	55c	1,237$679 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$557.87	4,279	47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L	-83.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked San Diego Padres	46c	1,114$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.61	912	52.4%478 W · 434 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Cincinnati Reds	15c	879.84$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$745.65	1,014	50.4%511 W · 503 L	+52.0wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Cincinnati Reds	41c	841.46$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$496.46	251	49.8%125 W · 126 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres	55c	684$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.22	4,035	57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L	+72.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds	44c	633.89$281 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352.95	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed San Diego Padres	62c	559.96$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.65	2,369	47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed San Diego Padres	59c	520.01$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.05	890	53.1%473 W · 417 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres	46c	438.85$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.02	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05e0…e2cbbacked San Diego Padres	40c	375$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	112	44.6%50 W · 62 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Diego Padres	48c	350.26$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.23	1,912	53%1,014 W · 898 L	+42.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Cincinnati Reds	40c	326.03$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.99	1,284	49.5%635 W · 649 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b1…e904backed Cincinnati Reds	40c	300$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180	693	51.9%360 W · 333 L	+26.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds	26c	278.04$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.74	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed San Diego Padres	41c	242$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.19	231	40.3%93 W · 138 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f55…8956backed Cincinnati Reds	40c	211.91$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.14	148	58.8%87 W · 61 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Cincinnati Reds	17c	198$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.34	3,208	51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L	+146.6wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x700b…8d0bbacked Cincinnati Reds	30c	182.69$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.85	89	44.9%40 W · 49 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds	40c	167.91$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.75	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Cincinnati Reds	41c	151.22$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.22	689	42.2%291 W · 398 L	+18.7wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked San Diego Padres	59c	140$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.6	1,062	49.2%523 W · 539 L	-11.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds	42c	133.97$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.29	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Cincinnati Reds	15c	133.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.13	455	50.3%229 W · 226 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Cincinnati Reds	15c	133.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.33	639	43.3%277 W · 362 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked San Diego Padres	46c	131$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.26	1,119	45.5%509 W · 610 L	+16.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked San Diego Padres	62c	128.97$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.96	435	60%261 W · 174 L	+13.0wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Cincinnati Reds	25c	127.5$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.79	705	46.8%330 W · 375 L	-13.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed San Diego Padres	63c	126.98$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	665	51.1%340 W · 325 L	-17.0wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae9f…4967backed San Diego Padres	53c	122.64$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-3.2wins	-0.24per pick	55cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Cincinnati Reds	41c	121.95$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.95	443	48.5%215 W · 228 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Cincinnati Reds	37c	118.94$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.93	3,832	42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed San Diego Padres	62c	112.9$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	674	49.4%333 W · 341 L	-28.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2942…a018backed San Diego Padres	62c	109.68$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	133	51.9%69 W · 64 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked San Diego Padres	41c	108.59$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.55	1,723	50.3%867 W · 856 L	+55.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked San Diego Padres	45c	105.4$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.95	701	54.2%380 W · 321 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7243…e409backed San Diego Padres	45c	103.4$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.53	86	61.6%53 W · 33 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked San Diego Padres	45c	103.4$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.53	399	53.6%214 W · 185 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed San Diego Padres	18c	102.91$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.52	59	42.4%25 W · 34 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds	62c	97.83$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.22	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xacee…afddbacked Cincinnati Reds	33c	90.91$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.91	217	51.6%112 W · 105 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds	38c	88.46$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.85	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Cincinnati Reds	24c	71.31$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.19	2,144	39.6%849 W · 1,295 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed San Diego Padres	40c	69.4$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.76	997	44.1%440 W · 557 L	-38.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed San Diego Padres	62c	66$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.92	478	48.5%232 W · 246 L	-15.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds	47c	65.46$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.69	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds	39c	63.93$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed San Diego Padres	61c	63.93$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	466	59.7%278 W · 188 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed San Diego Padres	64c	60.52$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	107	62.6%67 W · 40 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked San Diego Padres	62c	53.43$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.36	106	49.1%52 W · 54 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Cincinnati Reds	41c	50$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.5	695	47.5%330 W · 365 L	-16.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Cincinnati Reds	53c	46.33$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.92	1,042	49.4%515 W · 527 L	+13.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked San Diego Padres	59c	45$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	374	51.3%192 W · 182 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Cincinnati Reds	40c	43.53$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.12	469	52.5%246 W · 223 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked San Diego Padres	46c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	778	36%280 W · 498 L	-17.2wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres	60c	40$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	1,661	43.5%722 W · 939 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba56…10e8backed San Diego Padres	56c	36.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.36	155	40.6%63 W · 92 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Cincinnati Reds	29c	36.03$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	580	54.5%316 W · 264 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed San Diego Padres	60c	34.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.43	779	51.1%398 W · 381 L	+6.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0783…00d3backed San Diego Padres	46c	31.39$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Cincinnati Reds	41c	28.85$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.1	597	49.9%298 W · 299 L	+19.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Cincinnati Reds	40c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	383	53.8%206 W · 177 L	+16.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked San Diego Padres	59c	23.73$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	899	50.6%455 W · 444 L	-24.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a84…c4fcbacked San Diego Padres	45c	22.87$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresCincinnati Reds won
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event