MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c90c5c38a4bacbe7768fdb2783e69a3830b2e914250535565d56f61f30b4270
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 71c | 12,551$8,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,592.93 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 4,782$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.24 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 4,721$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.3 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 4,721$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.3 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 4,609$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.3 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 2,299$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.72 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 68c | 1,699$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.8 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 1,659$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.64 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…e934backed San Diego Padres | 73c | 1,608$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.72 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 24c | 1,375$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 21c | 1,120$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.14 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 880$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8aa…a3c7backed San Diego Padres | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 617.86$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 12c | 415.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 413.23$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 258.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.86 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 253$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.03 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…21fbbacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 253$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.03 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 168.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked San Diego Padres | 70c | 147$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 138$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 124$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked San Diego Padres | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 40.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked San Diego Padres | 71c | 17.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.