MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e48b6294276d868dbb0dee33abf9edd23b67eba1525b2547ab087a052908106
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 6,209$3,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,341.01 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 37c | 5,467$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 70c | 3,813$2,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.35 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 26c | 3,176$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.79 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Under | 69c | 699$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.62 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 38c | 454.36$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.66 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 38c | 352.84$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.03 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 38c | 295.16$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.21 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 38c | 260$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 29c | 249.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 35c | 225.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 38c | 201.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 191.77$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 46c | 170.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 26c | 163.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…e628backed Over | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 57c | 141.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 120.29$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 38c | 115.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 62c | 114.8$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…ed62backed Under | 62c | 111.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 34c | 109.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Over | 40c | 85.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6b…9b5abacked Over | 58c | 85.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 45c | 85.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…4db7backed Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 57.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 42c | 53.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Over | 42c | 53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 38c | 52.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe027…6cbbbacked Under | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 61c | 45.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 61c | 42.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 57c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Over | 38c | 39.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Over | 37c | 30.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…c745backed Under | 71c | 19.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Under | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.