MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3836047aa10b15ba934177a5a11ffd280e2d689eb0069cbec8fbd7f3244b78e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 55c | 15,011$8,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,256.55 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 45c | 11,782$5,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,480.19 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 2,408$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 59c | 1,344$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 48c | 1,329$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.39 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 48c | 1,092$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.24 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 37c | 1,045$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.97 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 66c | 602.99$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.11 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 65c | 474.46$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.46 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 52c | 401.29$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.8 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Over | 34c | 298.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 56c | 142.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 47c | 133$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 37c | 123$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 53c | 114.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…2bb3backed Over | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Under | 60c | 109.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 106.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcb…50fcbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…e7c8backed Under | 45c | 97.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 83.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 27c | 73.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 45c | 57.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 52.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 45c | 50.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 51c | 50.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 54c | 42.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…c435backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 33c | 35.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 52c | 31.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 48c | 27.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 26.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 48c | 24.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Over | 56c | 23.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 45c | 23.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 50c | 20.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…5c74backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 67c | 17.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.