MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e4bb4e1534272548bc13cedc8a818617992949fbf7a25f188881bacf0d34d34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 2,240$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.16 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 35c | 1,830$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 555.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 52c | 475.78$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Athletics | 37c | 408.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.57 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 310.13$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics | 45c | 208.25$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.55 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics | 35c | 173.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.11 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Athletics | 36c | 144.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Athletics | 35c | 134.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 120.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 43c | 110.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 107.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 45c | 95.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 92.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Athletics | 35c | 89.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Athletics | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Athletics | 49c | 73.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 73.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Milwaukee Brewers | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 51.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 46.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 40.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 43c | 35.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Athletics | 37c | 34.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Athletics | 35c | 32.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…6d41backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 27.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Athletics | 59c | 24.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.