MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac8789483e7d0e38572201fd761749227a820186ad0bc4aff128362e18080bcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 43c | 1,176$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.17 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 818.05$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.3 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 44c | 800$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 38c | 505$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 481.56$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.63 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 36c | 342.98$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.47 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Over | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 816 | 57.1%466 W · 350 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Over | 62c | 303.45$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.31 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Over | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 28c | 288.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 45c | 253.76$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 20c | 214.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 13c | 171.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 47c | 140.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 14c | 123.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Over | 62c | 112$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 56c | 109$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 73c | 97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 91.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 67.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…eb35backed Under | 37c | 60.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 62c | 36.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…5c74backed Under | 42c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 62c | 27.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 57c | 25.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…cd1bbacked Over | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 60c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da6…1615backed Over | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.