TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Athletics (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Milwaukee Brewersof Athletics, Milwaukee Brewers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,446
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,467

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,446 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics45c2,258$1,020 inLost-$1,020.394,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Milwaukee Brewers54c2,156$1,164 inWon+$991.764,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers69c1,105$767 inWon+$338.5312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Athletics35c412.69$144 inLost-$144.4487750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Athletics20c233$47 inLost-$46.68,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics42c228.51$96 inLost-$95.953,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Athletics21c226.2$48 inLost-$47.52,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Milwaukee Brewers54c148.07$80 inWon+$68.1143560%261 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Athletics23c133$31 inLost-$30.591,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers77c113.22$87 inWon+$26.0411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00b4…87bfbacked Milwaukee Brewers72c100.81$73 inWon+$28.231593.3%14 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.24per pick69cpaid+36.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Athletics28c100.81$28 inLost-$28.232,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Athletics24c92.61$22 inLost-$22.236,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked Milwaukee Brewers54c76.73$41 inWon+$35.310649.1%52 W · 54 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Athletics29c68.97$20 inLost-$2079543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Athletics28c65.75$19 inLost-$18.561,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers75c47.7$36 inWon+$11.925,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Athletics42c26.36$11 inLost-$11.051,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.