TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof Gen.G, BNK FEARX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$252,647
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$296,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,647 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1341…0853backed BNK FEARX31c69,186$21,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,421.831,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Gen.G69c56,071$38,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,183.86241.9%26 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked BNK FEARX34c20,000$6,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,799.981,50250.3%756 W · 746 L+71.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Gen.G69c19,021$13,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,957.011,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked BNK FEARX33c14,999$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.71,52254.7%832 W · 690 L+37.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ea…832fbacked Gen.G69c14,332$9,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,442.9320339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Gen.G66c13,468$8,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,579.1251146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed BNK FEARX31c12,893$3,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,996.6914247.2%67 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Gen.G66c12,555$8,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,268.5854353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked BNK FEARX31c12,000$3,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7205242.3%22 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Gen.G68c10,000$6,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,249.9814549.7%72 W · 73 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked BNK FEARX34c8,000$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,719.9550040.8%204 W · 296 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Gen.G69c7,555$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,355.3348742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed BNK FEARX33c7,512$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,495.581,21343.4%527 W · 686 L-15.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf4…997abacked Gen.G67c7,105$4,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,344.652142.9%9 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed BNK FEARX32c7,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,24059750.4%301 W · 296 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Gen.G68c6,500$4,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.9970456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed BNK FEARX33c6,000$1,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,977.3592254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f49…463abacked Gen.G67c5,000$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.9820045%90 W · 110 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Gen.G67c4,900$3,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,616.892853.6%15 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Gen.G65c4,857$3,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.0682452.7%434 W · 390 L+41.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed BNK FEARX35c3,427$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.5844451.8%230 W · 214 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked Gen.G66c3,030$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.359658.2%347 W · 249 L-29.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed BNK FEARX34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02010939.4%43 W · 66 L-13.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-28.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked BNK FEARX30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9944550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed BNK FEARX32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.9948440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Gen.G68c3,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.971,31055.8%731 W · 579 L+43.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed BNK FEARX31c2,800$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86843539.5%172 W · 263 L-24.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c49…03d0backed BNK FEARX32c2,562$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.92638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed Gen.G67c2,400$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7967758.4%45 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9de…7310backed BNK FEARX32c2,130$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.61650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Gen.G68c2,121$1,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.711,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed Gen.G66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6805543.6%24 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked BNK FEARX33c2,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.9990350.8%459 W · 444 L+17.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed BNK FEARX33c1,970$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.8486144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked BNK FEARX31c1,500$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.998652.3%45 W · 41 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Gen.G68c1,466$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.092,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Gen.G67c1,305$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.731,18244.8%530 W · 652 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf032…895dbacked Gen.G67c1,300$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42922059.5%131 W · 89 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4ab…13a1backed BNK FEARX32c1,277$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.641735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Gen.G66c1,177$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.2711032.7%36 W · 74 L-11.1wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Gen.G68c1,029$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.4130253.6%162 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19b5…c0aebacked BNK FEARX30c1,001$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.37042.9%30 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed BNK FEARX30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.791,15355.9%645 W · 508 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5217…ec29backed Gen.G69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31021154.5%115 W · 96 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x321d…d0acbacked Gen.G67c999.99$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33012462.9%78 W · 46 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Gen.G67c999.99$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33047455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed BNK FEARX34c999.99$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401,18444.4%526 W · 658 L-11.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked Gen.G68c999.97$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.9932457.7%187 W · 137 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed Gen.G70c993.95$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.1916446.3%76 W · 88 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d29…8e90backed Gen.G70c991$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.319559%115 W · 80 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked BNK FEARX32c888$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.1614352.4%75 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed BNK FEARX32c885.99$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.5286136.2%312 W · 549 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa500…39d1backed BNK FEARX34c883$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.2212548.8%61 W · 64 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Gen.G68c882.35$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.351,01447.6%483 W · 531 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2f…9123backed Gen.G68c882.35$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.3514243.7%62 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Gen.G66c800$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2721,26542.8%541 W · 724 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked Gen.G66c750$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2559750.5%49 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc3…5827backed Gen.G67c746.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26c6…1e14backed Gen.G68c740$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.428350.2%142 W · 141 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Gen.G68c735.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.2923672%170 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Gen.G68c733.45$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.4535353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked BNK FEARX33c672.73$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22228253.5%151 W · 131 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Gen.G68c654.41$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.4139755.4%220 W · 177 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Gen.G67c600$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20085746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked BNK FEARX35c579.8$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.9332053.8%172 W · 148 L+21.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked BNK FEARX33c575.76$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19028150.5%142 W · 139 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1c8…d919backed Gen.G68c563.24$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed BNK FEARX34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17029952.2%156 W · 143 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb700…5a62backed Gen.G69c461.14$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.959857.1%56 W · 42 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked BNK FEARX31c453.99$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7412352%64 W · 59 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Gen.G66c453.03$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.0337640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Gen.G68c449.99$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Gen.G67c436$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.8849947.1%235 W · 264 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe450…a40abacked Gen.G70c428.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.5712263.1%77 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed BNK FEARX35c424.23$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4337548%180 W · 195 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed BNK FEARX35c400$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14075738.6%292 W · 465 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f2…aeb7backed BNK FEARX31c395.18$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5120542.4%87 W · 118 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe9f…31e3backed Gen.G68c382.35$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.352748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ba8…d72bbacked Gen.G67c369.63$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.9817659.7%105 W · 71 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed Gen.G68c367.65$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.6532253.1%171 W · 151 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Gen.G69c362.32$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3265563.2%414 W · 241 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafc5…2b1dbacked BNK FEARX31c340$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.46829.4%20 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked BNK FEARX33c338.12$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0922142.5%94 W · 127 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0c8…97b4backed Gen.G68c300$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9568063.4%431 W · 249 L-16.4wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Gen.G68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961,35651.1%693 W · 663 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3329…6c52backed Gen.G67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994052.5%21 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d38…3575backed Gen.G67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995149%25 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc20…8c98backed Gen.G68c294.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1210253.9%55 W · 47 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26be…805fbacked Gen.G68c294.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.128967.4%60 W · 29 L+13.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+33.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked BNK FEARX16c292.04$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0548944.4%217 W · 272 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x274b…d408backed BNK FEARX34c256.82$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.326521.5%14 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-41.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed BNK FEARX31c241.98$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0126856.7%152 W · 116 L+1.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd1…9249backed Gen.G66c230$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.217744.6%79 W · 98 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked BNK FEARX32c217.81$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.790937.3%339 W · 570 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ea…8011backed BNK FEARX31c214$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.260%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked BNK FEARX31c206.87$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6411245.5%51 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x782f…db54backed Gen.G66c196.32$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.751369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f84…98f1backed BNK FEARX33c184.85$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616738.8%26 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd806…787fbacked BNK FEARX32c183$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5690%0 W · 9 L-4.6wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.