TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof BNK FEARX, Gen.G
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$365,309
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$459,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $365,309 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd202…8973backed Gen.G79c28,135$22,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,989.6538735.9%139 W · 248 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed BNK FEARX20c18,754$3,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,758.011,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed BNK FEARX13c17,619$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.371,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked Gen.G79c16,553$13,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,449.2538662.2%240 W · 146 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed BNK FEARX22c14,103$3,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,102.661,20354%650 W · 553 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed Gen.G79c11,098$8,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,282.631,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed BNK FEARX20c10,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00059750.4%301 W · 296 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac4…7310backed BNK FEARX1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013854.3%75 W · 63 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked BNK FEARX22c10,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20090348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed BNK FEARX16c7,117$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.8951748.2%249 W · 268 L+26.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BNK FEARX14c6,873$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.761,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked BNK FEARX21c6,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26070456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bac…6fb7backed BNK FEARX18c5,600$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.9918633.3%62 W · 124 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed BNK FEARX17c5,338$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.9886136.2%312 W · 549 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed BNK FEARX18c5,127$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.719122.5%43 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a4…a73ebacked BNK FEARX1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50651.5%1 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-96.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BNK FEARX13c4,257$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.351,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed BNK FEARX5c4,132$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.689746.9%421 W · 476 L+43.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BNK FEARX13c4,130$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.761,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked BNK FEARX17c3,722$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.7367552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed BNK FEARX12c3,476$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.0976642%322 W · 444 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BNK FEARX13c3,465$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.651,00842.5%428 W · 580 L-24.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed BNK FEARX15c3,243$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.2985942.7%367 W · 492 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed BNK FEARX16c3,125$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50048834%166 W · 322 L+25.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked BNK FEARX16c3,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48049541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed BNK FEARX18c2,988$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.8847933.2%159 W · 320 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed BNK FEARX22c2,821$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.621,00554%543 W · 462 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed BNK FEARX22c2,560$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.181,07147.1%504 W · 567 L+2.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf344…13ffbacked BNK FEARX1c2,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528166.5%187 W · 94 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Gen.G79c2,500$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5251,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bb8…aa5fbacked BNK FEARX1c2,222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.222281.8%4 W · 224 L-0.5wins0.00per pick2cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked BNK FEARX13c2,128$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.8195541.7%398 W · 557 L-31.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Gen.G79c2,121$1,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.411,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed BNK FEARX20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4009657.3%55 W · 41 L+10.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+28.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed BNK FEARX18c1,730$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.198334.9%29 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed BNK FEARX23c1,500$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.6982953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked BNK FEARX21c1,455$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.4655955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked BNK FEARX22c1,430$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.667250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7c0…f389backed BNK FEARX16c1,300$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20817035.9%61 W · 109 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed BNK FEARX6c1,248$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8415632.7%51 W · 105 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed BNK FEARX22c1,188$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.361,44157.4%827 W · 614 L+35.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked BNK FEARX18c1,114$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.5611434.2%39 W · 75 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed BNK FEARX18c1,111$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20038835.3%137 W · 251 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed BNK FEARX17c1,050$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18241439.6%164 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed BNK FEARX12c999.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,22135.9%438 W · 783 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed BNK FEARX20c999.99$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1649947.1%235 W · 264 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Gen.G77c999.97$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.9996057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed BNK FEARX18c981.18$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1752,36731.9%756 W · 1,611 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c0…13b5backed BNK FEARX22c906.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5421954.3%119 W · 100 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked BNK FEARX4c896.76$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1766316.4%109 W · 554 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked BNK FEARX17c886.93$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15290937.3%339 W · 570 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Gen.G78c849.99$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1871,18244.8%530 W · 652 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f0…c55dbacked BNK FEARX18c820.43$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011330.1%34 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9867…ea53backed BNK FEARX22c811$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.4213752.6%72 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed BNK FEARX16c759.41$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.151,21343.4%527 W · 686 L-15.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Gen.G78c750$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1651,22348.6%594 W · 629 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed BNK FEARX12c750$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9042924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd7…f491backed BNK FEARX17c699.97$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3942246.4%196 W · 226 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed BNK FEARX17c699.7$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9548338.7%187 W · 296 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed BNK FEARX21c675.13$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3786144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed BNK FEARX12c653.26$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.392,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc59e…a3febacked BNK FEARX16c650$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1048150.6%41 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde6e…0169backed BNK FEARX17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10240435.1%142 W · 262 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked BNK FEARX17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10229940.1%120 W · 179 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BNK FEARX16c592.72$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.221,91237.1%709 W · 1,203 L-115.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BNK FEARX13c580.17$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.172,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ff…3506backed BNK FEARX19c572$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11133837.9%128 W · 210 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6bb…c0aabacked BNK FEARX18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9033058.5%193 W · 137 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x419e…deb1backed BNK FEARX23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11514154.6%77 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed BNK FEARX13c480$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641,29926.6%345 W · 954 L+65.4wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked BNK FEARX18c467$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.582,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked BNK FEARX12c460.66$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2214429.2%42 W · 102 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08b3…48a9backed BNK FEARX23c456.52$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051,02547.9%491 W · 534 L+26.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed BNK FEARX20c441.82$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.361,59653.7%857 W · 739 L+56.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ec…fc6ebacked Gen.G78c441.72$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.181361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed BNK FEARX21c399.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe22…5d76backed BNK FEARX19c397.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Gen.G76c383.66$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0888544.3%392 W · 493 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Gen.G79c379.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.751,22358.1%710 W · 513 L+43.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a0f…732abacked BNK FEARX12c377.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4513441.8%56 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x22c7…3e23backed BNK FEARX18c376.86$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8310736.4%39 W · 68 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed BNK FEARX19c368.42$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed BNK FEARX10c322$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.71,06028.5%302 W · 758 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea7e…2c67backed BNK FEARX11c313.45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8745551.9%236 W · 219 L+26.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Gen.G80c300.22$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0947150.7%239 W · 232 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Gen.G78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6694644.6%422 W · 524 L-2.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked BNK FEARX16c277.88$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5636040.6%146 W · 214 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed BNK FEARX16c272.48$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5337548%180 W · 195 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc6…448ebacked BNK FEARX17c264.71$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457824.4%19 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaa4…865cbacked Gen.G79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1618062.2%112 W · 68 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34f2…3bc2backed Gen.G77c250$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.553147.5%252 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6700…67c4backed BNK FEARX19c226.12$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9611649.1%57 W · 59 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed BNK FEARX18c222.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab5…106bbacked BNK FEARX18c222.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a99…51bbbacked BNK FEARX23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5083149.8%414 W · 417 L+2.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ab4…f836backed BNK FEARX23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508043.8%35 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d07…8b9ebacked Gen.G79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4244047.5%209 W · 231 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6281…e326backed BNK FEARX22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4417140.9%70 W · 101 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed BNK FEARX10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,85239.8%738 W · 1,114 L-64.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed BNK FEARX17c191.76$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.81,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.