MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf9dcae2c2e3c258c10702598fe9eab9a481cd955117a91b4281954735702bca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Under | 50c | 28,544$14,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,297.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 22,818$11,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,409.14 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 57c | 16,965$9,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,656.59 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 41c | 6,020$2,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,551.83 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 3,333$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 60c | 2,393$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.5 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…9077backed Under | 40c | 1,768$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.91 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 1,464$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 1,298$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 60c | 1,271$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.71 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 40c | 1,258$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.65 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 39c | 1,148$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.9 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 1,136$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 42c | 768.9$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.48 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 29c | 728.93$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.08 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 613.71$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.18 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 60c | 560.02$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.07 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…cd84backed Under | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 60c | 460$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 41c | 393.06$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.82 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6170…03bdbacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 40c | 249.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.98 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 42c | 240$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 59c | 226.46$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.86 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 61c | 196.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 60c | 145.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…2bb3backed Under | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 74c | 117.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 74c | 117.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 44c | 114.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Under | 55c | 109.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 41c | 107.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 51c | 79.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 41c | 66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 65.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 37c | 62.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Under | 41c | 61.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 41c | 49.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Under | 48c | 47.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 33c | 47.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…67fabacked Under | 51c | 44.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 41.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Over | 50c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 33c | 35.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…a694backed Under | 41c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 53c | 34.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…e138backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…9fe7backed Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…245abacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…9384backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…4a14backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 50c | 23.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 61c | 20.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 61c | 20.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland GuardiansNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.