MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9717b7cab7fb40fd3361a41122364c3d10b3eae6bdbbb81cb849989db829d20d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 11,199$3,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,406.17 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 8,783$6,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,701.79 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Yankees | 67c | 2,941$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.28 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 1,614$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.13 | 496 | 50.2%249 W · 247 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 790.42$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.93 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…6f6abacked Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 70c | 545.88$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.56 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed New York Yankees | 69c | 429.62$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.18 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed New York Yankees | 70c | 406.54$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.88 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed New York Yankees | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 330.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees | 71c | 319.05$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 254$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 240$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed New York Yankees | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 194.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 151.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed New York Yankees | 70c | 145.28$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Yankees | 71c | 129.95$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cleveland Guardians | 13c | 128.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 120.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Yankees | 71c | 120.69$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 117.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked New York Yankees | 70c | 114.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Yankees | 74c | 114$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 105.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 105.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked New York Yankees | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 99.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed New York Yankees | 70c | 91.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed New York Yankees | 68c | 63.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 290 | 43.1%125 W · 165 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 62.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Yankees | 79c | 54.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f7…a9a9backed Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 51.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…fe5dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…3378backed New York Yankees | 70c | 49.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed New York Yankees | 76c | 48.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 39.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 34.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 31.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 28.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked New York Yankees | 67c | 28.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…999abacked New York Yankees | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked New York Yankees | 73c | 23.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed New York Yankees | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland GuardiansNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.