TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

WNBA · resolved market

Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Atlanta Dreamof Atlanta Dream, Chicago Sky
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$350,394
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$363,668

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $350,394 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1117…3532backed Chicago Sky22c57,462$12,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,367.0513950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Dream70c43,943$30,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,231.11,02547.8%490 W · 535 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Atlanta Dream75c33,277$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,277.132839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Dream78c29,234$22,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,334.923245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Atlanta Dream79c29,230$23,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,050.5925047.6%119 W · 131 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Atlanta Dream78c25,872$20,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,680.58366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick77cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Chicago Sky19c22,406$4,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,258.849318.3%17 W · 76 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1852…cb4ebacked Chicago Sky31c18,902$5,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,883.42817.9%5 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-41.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Sky29c13,443$3,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,939.921,80351.8%934 W · 869 L+56.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Chicago Sky22c9,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98028148.8%137 W · 144 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Chicago Sky22c8,538$1,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,837.6819757.9%114 W · 83 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Chicago Sky34c8,380$2,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,839.5216152.2%84 W · 77 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab65…4a03backed Chicago Sky21c7,332$1,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,565.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Chicago Sky20c7,173$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.914967.3%33 W · 16 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+38.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Sky23c6,008$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.3187148.2%420 W · 451 L+4.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Atlanta Dream78c5,461$4,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.4236954.2%200 W · 169 L+1.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Chicago Sky30c5,088$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5182714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-62.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Chicago Sky22c4,683$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.33825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Sky26c4,559$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.0451547.2%243 W · 272 L-2.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Atlanta Dream79c3,666$2,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.912382.6%19 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Chicago Sky22c3,613$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.412650%13 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Chicago Sky21c3,507$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.6147546.7%222 W · 253 L-2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Atlanta Dream61c3,338$2,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.4837051.1%189 W · 181 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Chicago Sky29c3,322$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.294829.2%14 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Sky21c2,812$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.8841451%211 W · 203 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago Sky38c2,626$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.0415546.5%72 W · 83 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Atlanta Dream71c2,549$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.288762.1%54 W · 33 L-0.4wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Atlanta Dream74c2,549$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.695466.7%36 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Atlanta Dream71c2,500$1,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7221136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Dream69c2,296$1,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.571,63550.2%820 W · 815 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Chicago Sky30c2,289$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.93534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Atlanta Dream70c2,279$1,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.4485658.4%500 W · 356 L+70.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Chicago Sky25c2,114$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.4620641.3%85 W · 121 L-16.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed Chicago Sky28c2,111$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.32458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Atlanta Dream79c2,000$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+41.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Atlanta Dream78c2,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4401100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Chicago Sky22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.996154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Sky36c1,936$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.9726447%124 W · 140 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Atlanta Dream78c1,745$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.997259.7%43 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96a9…e073backed Atlanta Dream77c1,538$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.72941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Atlanta Dream71c1,451$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.858551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Sky31c1,396$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42980348.7%391 W · 412 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Chicago Sky22c1,304$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.885141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5db…5800backed Atlanta Dream79c1,266$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.823557.1%20 W · 15 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Chicago Sky10c1,159$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.335126.2%92 W · 259 L-21.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf41a…b386backed Chicago Sky29c1,148$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Atlanta Dream78c1,100$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24519142.4%81 W · 110 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Chicago Sky21c1,100$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2314047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Chicago Sky21c1,097$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.44042.5%17 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Atlanta Dream79c1,095$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.2813844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Atlanta Dream75c1,088$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.655538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Atlanta Dream66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3409454.3%51 W · 43 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x952a…bdc8backed Atlanta Dream65c996.29$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.83475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Chicago Sky34c960.17$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.465147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2d7…da62backed Chicago Sky43c930.39$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-71.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Sky39c900$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35110858.3%63 W · 45 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Atlanta Dream79c896$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.2121847.2%103 W · 115 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Atlanta Dream65c823.44$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.33580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Chicago Sky39c777$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.039129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf807…c5dcbacked Chicago Sky35c755.93$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.581717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-68.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Chicago Sky32c751.25$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.3518746%86 W · 101 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Atlanta Dream76c727.96$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9623867.2%160 W · 78 L+10.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Chicago Sky31c718.59$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.9132648.5%158 W · 168 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4504…9c3cbacked Atlanta Dream79c701.17$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.29666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15dd…11dbbacked Chicago Sky36c700.37$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.61414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick36cpaid-74.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd231…633cbacked Atlanta Dream77c699.99$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Chicago Sky37c682.46$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501172.7%8 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.38per pick35cpaid+111.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Sky30c628.06$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.6230447.4%144 W · 160 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Atlanta Dream79c606.33$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.335156.9%29 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Chicago Sky23c603.99$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.62853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Chicago Sky2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Atlanta Dream67c592$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.691662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atlanta Dream80c574.81$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.9639750.1%199 W · 198 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Atlanta Dream70c565.38$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.091872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Atlanta Dream65c540.19$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.0714346.2%66 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d4c…fc89backed Atlanta Dream78c512.82$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.821968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Atlanta Dream79c506.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.331127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.29per pick57cpaid-59.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4e81…b4cebacked Atlanta Dream79c506.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.339100%9 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xce5e…c0fabacked Chicago Sky20c501.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.223450%17 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Chicago Sky22c485$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.426835.3%24 W · 44 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6cbb…8a37backed Atlanta Dream79c480.23$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.96580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+45.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfff3…e2c5backed Chicago Sky21c476$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.961118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.31per pick49cpaid-66.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Atlanta Dream68c463.96$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.4838744.7%173 W · 214 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Atlanta Dream66c434.25$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.56043.3%26 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Atlanta Dream79c429.76$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.251266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0c4…989abacked Atlanta Dream69c425$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1312060%12 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd2…43f3backed Atlanta Dream78c402.56$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.56540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-48%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4fe…b350backed Chicago Sky16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1a…d74ebacked Atlanta Dream78c384.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.622777.8%21 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Chicago Sky31c383.6$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.1119332.1%62 W · 131 L-13.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf5b…5d3abacked Atlanta Dream80c375$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752572%18 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7400…c5ccbacked Chicago Sky20c364.13$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8560%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed Chicago Sky29c362.53$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2670%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd886…c006backed Atlanta Dream79c352.92$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.111080%8 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf46…8734backed Chicago Sky23c337.33$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.59475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+36.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Chicago Sky33c329$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2610039%39 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d29…f683backed Atlanta Dream73c320$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.52360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Atlanta Dream76c309.98$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7311840.7%48 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2688…9197backed Chicago Sky20c303$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.63046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Chicago Sky26c302$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.761526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.