TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Everton FCof Manchester City FC, Everton FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$401,542
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$401,276

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $401,542 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 388 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd9c4…6f95backed Everton FC60c203,478$122,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,248.9916040.6%65 W · 95 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x85f0…3f67backed Manchester City FC41c70,000$28,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,7003234.4%11 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Everton FC58c56,826$33,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,588.6713353.4%71 W · 62 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Everton FC59c39,556$23,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,383.923557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Manchester City FC39c29,631$11,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,650.296,04745.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L-21.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Manchester City FC39c25,000$9,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,7506261.3%38 W · 24 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed Manchester City FC41c24,301$9,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,984.552544%11 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc198…6d2cbacked Manchester City FC42c10,537$4,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,425.56850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd10c…0645backed Manchester City FC41c10,244$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2001947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Manchester City FC41c10,000$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,10011149.5%55 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e2f…aaf8backed Manchester City FC44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.98650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Everton FC59c9,538$5,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,910.731947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Manchester City FC39c7,311$2,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,851.632,53047.7%1,206 W · 1,324 L+43.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba6f…fd5bbacked Manchester City FC39c6,919$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.661625%4 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-53.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Manchester City FC42c6,690$2,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,791.827955.9%156 W · 123 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Manchester City FC42c5,976$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+43.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Manchester City FC39c5,151$2,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,026.8135941.5%149 W · 210 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Manchester City FC40c5,092$2,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,036.667536%27 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Manchester City FC41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05035652.8%188 W · 168 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc947…3462backed Manchester City FC41c4,878$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fd9…1ef0backed Everton FC60c4,625$2,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,850.163243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Manchester City FC39c4,405$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.821637.5%6 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Everton FC60c4,300$2,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7203151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a93…c3eabacked Manchester City FC40c4,063$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6253132.3%10 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Manchester City FC40c3,624$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…8f58backed Manchester City FC40c3,289$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.212445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe153…ba59backed Everton FC59c3,242$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8987…02f3backed Manchester City FC39c3,015$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.763748.6%18 W · 19 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4de7…1982backed Manchester City FC41c3,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Manchester City FC41c3,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23040953.3%218 W · 191 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Manchester City FC17c2,777$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.354,69641.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L+21.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Everton FC60c2,745$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.3441850.7%212 W · 206 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Manchester City FC40c2,454$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Manchester City FC40c2,400$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.999055.6%50 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed Manchester City FC41c2,324$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.022751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Manchester City FC41c2,190$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9006240.3%25 W · 37 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Manchester City FC41c2,025$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.5419235.9%69 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Everton FC59c2,002$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.2655351.9%287 W · 266 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Manchester City FC41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82045936.2%166 W · 293 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63da…d5cebacked Everton FC59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Manchester City FC40c1,944$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.04666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+118.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe757…c161backed Manchester City FC53c1,827$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.461225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Everton FC60c1,667$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.677145.1%32 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Manchester City FC39c1,655$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.4510765.4%70 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10f9…9d91backed Manchester City FC41c1,624$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.681145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Everton FC59c1,500$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61514258.5%83 W · 59 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Manchester City FC40c1,300$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5203043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Manchester City FC39c1,292$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5a…87efbacked Manchester City FC40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006229%18 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40b4…1483backed Manchester City FC40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002055%11 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+69.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0db…56d5backed Manchester City FC42c1,190$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002673.1%19 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55e1…c25cbacked Manchester City FC43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x106b…4e8bbacked Manchester City FC42c1,087$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.493737.8%14 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-21%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Manchester City FC40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40013554.8%74 W · 61 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…cb72backed Manchester City FC40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cca…08a9backed Manchester City FC40c999.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Manchester City FC13c993.11$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5169742.5%296 W · 401 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57fe…13c1backed Manchester City FC41c975.61$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Manchester City FC40c973.07$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.774656.5%26 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa492…adbebacked Everton FC59c847.46$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.469131.9%29 W · 62 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-34.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Manchester City FC43c772.09$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3323154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc193…5160backed Manchester City FC40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd538…317cbacked Manchester City FC41c731.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30022125.8%57 W · 164 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc39c…019bbacked Manchester City FC41c731.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e8e…c986backed Manchester City FC41c729.99$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.37844.9%35 W · 43 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Manchester City FC42c715.19$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.822744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed Manchester City FC40c700$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b4…d723backed Manchester City FC41c700$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2874425%11 W · 33 L-7.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-45.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x3b29…556ebacked Manchester City FC44c682.78$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed5d…2668backed Manchester City FC47c678.11$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3208737.9%33 W · 54 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Manchester City FC39c671.75$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.7840655.2%224 W · 182 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Manchester City FC39c671$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.8129250%146 W · 146 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Manchester City FC53c632.92$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.933050%15 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Manchester City FC16c616.43$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.181,40944.5%627 W · 782 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Manchester City FC52c601$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.522326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-41.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Manchester City FC40c600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2408637.2%32 W · 54 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Manchester City FC41c597.56$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24519826.3%52 W · 146 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5537…f9c8backed Manchester City FC40c575$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.952152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Everton FC59c554.21$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.239350.5%47 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbe…1559backed Manchester City FC42c547.62$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2309345.2%42 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Manchester City FC52c544.23$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2832528%7 W · 18 L-7.4wins-0.29per pick57cpaid-48.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked Manchester City FC39c543$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.771560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce71…8aecbacked Manchester City FC41c531.76$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f04…1d79backed Manchester City FC41c524.39$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+81.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe02…1204backed Manchester City FC41c516.92$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102050%10 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8001…c76fbacked Everton FC60c514$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.61553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9552…bb8fbacked Manchester City FC43c513.95$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23f9…3c2dbacked Manchester City FC40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0636…c529backed Everton FC60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+29.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Manchester City FC41c499.83$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.931442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Manchester City FC41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008045%36 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked Everton FC62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8710950.5%55 W · 54 L+11.5wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Manchester City FC41c482$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009955.6%55 W · 44 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcff3…2eeebacked Manchester City FC41c475.61$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1952832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95ec…3484backed Manchester City FC41c463.41$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902040%8 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af2…f92fbacked Manchester City FC41c462.02$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.432839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Everton FC59c455.99$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.458259.8%49 W · 33 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Manchester City FC40c437.16$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.9317327.2%47 W · 126 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad2…fb00backed Manchester City FC42c428.57$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Manchester City FC34c412.27$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.021,92342.4%815 W · 1,108 L-42.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.