TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 2 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FunPlus Phoenixof FunPlus Phoenix, Wolves Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,066
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,411

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,066 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c3f…75cfbacked FunPlus Phoenix53c15,281$8,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,217.4813651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FunPlus Phoenix57c12,500$7,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,376.0952155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed Wolves Esports43c8,619$3,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,703.472020%4 W · 16 L-6.2wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Wolves Esports47c4,318$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,029.541,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Wolves Esports47c3,096$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.241,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Wolves Esports50c2,971$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010946.8%51 W · 58 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked FunPlus Phoenix78c2,158$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.2678162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Wolves Esports20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40032047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd273…9a33backed Wolves Esports43c1,890$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.891060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb11…8f3fbacked Wolves Esports43c1,696$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9854…d9d4backed Wolves Esports47c1,536$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…52d2backed Wolves Esports47c1,396$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7673…fa40backed Wolves Esports43c1,337$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5751747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed FunPlus Phoenix60c1,331$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.3934857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6fb…0b9dbacked Wolves Esports47c1,331$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c29…1ba5backed Wolves Esports47c1,328$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Wolves Esports46c1,216$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.937445.9%34 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c99…1d11backed Wolves Esports47c1,207$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Wolves Esports46c1,207$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.0324846%114 W · 134 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8244…338abacked Wolves Esports47c1,143$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4a2…6fc8backed Wolves Esports47c1,100$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5171540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked Wolves Esports47c1,093$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.288950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf9…e66fbacked Wolves Esports47c1,039$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Wolves Esports35c1,014$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.5957151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed FunPlus Phoenix57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4305250%26 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+32%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Wolves Esports44c999.99$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.994926.5%13 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-30.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f43…781abacked Wolves Esports47c944$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Wolves Esports20c916.89$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.5674642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3013…279bbacked FunPlus Phoenix57c886.72$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.6610552.4%55 W · 50 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed FunPlus Phoenix56c871.37$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.4845250%226 W · 226 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Wolves Esports28c865.38$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.2542540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60df…2e19backed Wolves Esports47c858$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed Wolves Esports44c842$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.312846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FunPlus Phoenix58c738.58$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.493049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ee6…07cabacked FunPlus Phoenix57c730.63$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.4315160.3%91 W · 60 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcf8…94b6backed Wolves Esports42c692.74$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.95475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+53.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Wolves Esports41c686.96$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.6744342%186 W · 257 L-22.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed FunPlus Phoenix51c579.62$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.6223151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed Wolves Esports47c575$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.253633.3%12 W · 24 L-6.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-29.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Wolves Esports43c569.51$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.315843%68 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1362…f403backed FunPlus Phoenix48c562$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.24666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed FunPlus Phoenix50c555$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.533942.2%143 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x202f…7b58backed Wolves Esports51c535.95$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed FunPlus Phoenix50c500.1$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.0525453.5%136 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa18d…9b51backed Wolves Esports42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked Wolves Esports44c464.08$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.22343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed FunPlus Phoenix57c438.6$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.634253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8976…7367backed Wolves Esports44c431.67$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.415343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Wolves Esports47c406.91$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.259737.1%36 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Wolves Esports39c400$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1564542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Wolves Esports43c368.68$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4927145%122 W · 149 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Wolves Esports42c345.24$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1452433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Wolves Esports41c329.92$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.531,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Wolves Esports47c302$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9419240.1%77 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Wolves Esports43c261.16$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.328747.4%136 W · 151 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x687f…da05backed FunPlus Phoenix77c248.06$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.05560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Wolves Esports25c245.89$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2977929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Wolves Esports12c236.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.041,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Wolves Esports10c232$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.821,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed FunPlus Phoenix51c230.47$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.735349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Wolves Esports29c219$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1737545.6%171 W · 204 L-1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Wolves Esports24c205$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.223447%110 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Wolves Esports45c204.93$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.37443.2%32 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Wolves Esports28c202.73$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1318444.6%82 W · 102 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Wolves Esports47c199.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7160154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf860…d0c5backed FunPlus Phoenix57c197.47$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed FunPlus Phoenix51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.086446.9%30 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed FunPlus Phoenix48c193.67$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.711752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c5…8181backed FunPlus Phoenix57c175.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.133351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e5…8ce3backed FunPlus Phoenix60c167.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.54341.9%18 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44e9…ec97backed FunPlus Phoenix60c167.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.221266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FunPlus Phoenix63c157.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.821,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed FunPlus Phoenix58c151.35$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1463652.7%335 W · 301 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Wolves Esports21c135.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1221136.5%77 W · 134 L-15.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Wolves Esports17c132.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9341835.6%149 W · 269 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Wolves Esports26c130.17$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3496245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5900…45ebbacked Wolves Esports47c125.38$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.931338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked Wolves Esports8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102050%10 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Wolves Esports19c123.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4730835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d54…b73bbacked Wolves Esports25c117.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Wolves Esports44c116.8$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3916046.9%75 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Wolves Esports13c111$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.115833.5%53 W · 105 L-14.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked FunPlus Phoenix58c107.12$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6115842.4%67 W · 91 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Wolves Esports45c106.91$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.678043.8%35 W · 45 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked FunPlus Phoenix57c105.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2662856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7107…7a54backed FunPlus Phoenix57c101.75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.753863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ed…687ebacked Wolves Esports14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-57.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe720…2bb3backed Wolves Esports45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8e…08f9backed Wolves Esports50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012157%69 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Wolves Esports43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.814729.9%44 W · 103 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Wolves Esports19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4826932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked FunPlus Phoenix56c90.23$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8926758.8%157 W · 110 L+18.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Wolves Esports37c89$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.361,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Wolves Esports25c88.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2269722.8%159 W · 538 L-94.4wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Wolves Esports43c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3434443.3%149 W · 195 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Wolves Esports40c80$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.932141.7%134 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Wolves Esports47c74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.786344.4%28 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4255…1792backed FunPlus Phoenix51c72.66$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.616041.9%67 W · 93 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fa…26d9backed Wolves Esports28c72.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed FunPlus Phoenix51c68.63$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.638259.8%49 W · 33 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+29.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.