TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,416
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,419

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,416 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs46c993.99$458 inWon+$536.265,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Colorado Rockies58c756.5$439 inLost-$438.779,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9e7…0febbacked Chicago Cubs47c592.58$279 inWon+$314.077851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc376…6850backed Colorado Rockies54c559.54$302 inLost-$301.76757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Chicago Cubs42c408.07$171 inWon+$236.683444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Chicago Cubs42c365.18$154 inWon+$211.673948.7%19 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ea…66dbbacked Colorado Rockies54c253.54$137 inLost-$136.91966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x463e…fa8ebacked Colorado Rockies53c202$107 inLost-$107.061464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Colorado Rockies53c188.68$100 inLost-$10067453%357 W · 317 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe720…2bb3backed Colorado Rockies53c138.26$73 inLost-$73.28728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b02…3844backed Colorado Rockies54c67.24$36 inLost-$36.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0645…c08ebacked Colorado Rockies53c61.53$33 inLost-$32.616744.8%30 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc7b…8fb6backed Colorado Rockies54c55.56$30 inLost-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf5f…2184backed Colorado Rockies54c50$27 inLost-$272161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.