MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe1326fb0d15cd5cee6c04cf1ac6f2df59bcc5a72cac4dcbc2a3dfa8c6bf50e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 23c | 14,455$3,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,309.54 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 4,931$3,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 76c | 4,895$3,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.92 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 77c | 4,750$3,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.56 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 39c | 813.72$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.9 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 27c | 703.39$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.16 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 61c | 642.9$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.66 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Under | 79c | 581.22$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 78c | 538$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 53c | 469.15$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba92…2196backed Under | 72c | 415.16$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 39c | 399.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.45 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 47c | 322$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.34 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 45c | 241.9$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.86 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 43c | 238.4$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.48 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 47c | 238.4$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.96 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 63c | 175.14$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 165.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 14c | 139.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 19c | 139.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 24c | 80.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 70c | 75.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Under | 79c | 48.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 86 | 69.8%60 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 75c | 47.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 28c | 43.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 63c | 41.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Under | 67c | 38.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 76c | 31.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Under | 77c | 29.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 40c | 28.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9603…de5ebacked Under | 78c | 24.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 77c | 21.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6413…8200backed Under | 76c | 18.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 77c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 77c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a41…0123backed Under | 77c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado RockiesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.