TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,381
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,608

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,381 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7634…600dbacked Colorado Rockies57c8,158$4,648 inLost-$4,648.3160350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Colorado Rockies20c3,069$614 inLost-$613.89749.5%48 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs44c2,754$1,225 inWon+$1,529.4112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs66c2,030$1,348 inWon+$682.3411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Colorado Rockies20c1,541$307 inLost-$306.899450%47 W · 47 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs50c736.71$372 inWon+$364.963,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs48c630$302 inWon+$327.718,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Colorado Rockies63c491.43$310 inLost-$309.687750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Colorado Rockies51c400$204 inLost-$204.451,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x82c0…02fdbacked Colorado Rockies8c248.16$20 inLost-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Chicago Cubs43c232$100 inWon+$132.241,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Colorado Rockies76c164.21$124 inLost-$124.215,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Colorado Rockies55c131.27$73 inLost-$72.82,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…2751backed Colorado Rockies72c122$87 inLost-$87.3217446%80 W · 94 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Colorado Rockies60c120.51$72 inLost-$72.142,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs40c119.27$47 inWon+$72.016,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs56c102.97$57 inWon+$45.564,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Chicago Cubs43c100.26$43 inWon+$57.152,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Colorado Rockies20c93.6$19 inLost-$18.7247549.7%236 W · 239 L+17.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dfb…f1b7backed Colorado Rockies21c75.64$16 inLost-$15.7231963%201 W · 118 L+27.5wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+8.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Colorado Rockies20c69.53$14 inLost-$13.9127646.7%129 W · 147 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Colorado Rockies31c67.84$21 inLost-$20.911,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs78c54.38$42 inWon+$11.965,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Colorado Rockies51c47.69$24 inLost-$24.477836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Chicago Cubs43c43.26$19 inWon+$24.6658054.5%316 W · 264 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc367…85e2backed Chicago Cubs73c41.1$30 inWon+$11.14252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Colorado Rockies64c39.49$25 inLost-$25.273,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Chicago Cubs43c38$16 inWon+$21.661,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs39c36.86$14 inWon+$22.566,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Chicago Cubs45c34.81$16 inWon+$19.151,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Chicago Cubs50c34.47$17 inWon+$17.1772655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Colorado Rockies73c28.11$20 inLost-$20.4663954.5%348 W · 291 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb2…82e5backed Chicago Cubs48c25.63$12 inWon+$13.212055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce49…836abacked Chicago Cubs58c18.57$11 inWon+$7.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc5e…f0c5backed Colorado Rockies73c15$11 inLost-$10.959473.4%69 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick74cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.