MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1c8fba87e4009ec062b91c6b19f0210b66d99c63fa4edaed730ab99fcfd005e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 59c | 1,480$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.24 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 39c | 1,291$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.57 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 1,146$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 68c | 805.13$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 61c | 589.06$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.36 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 39c | 537$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.43 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 59c | 525.97$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.65 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 60c | 497.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.94 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 40c | 488.45$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.42 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…2a39backed Over | 65c | 397.17$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.16 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 38c | 395.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.26 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 47c | 314.34$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.05 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 66c | 274.01$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 66c | 236$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.73 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Over | 41c | 202.48$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 48c | 198.02$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5672backed Under | 55c | 182.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 48c | 181.25$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 35c | 181.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 180.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 43c | 172.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 167.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 61c | 165$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 41c | 163.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 61c | 131.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 61c | 130$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 43c | 127.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 119.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 59c | 110.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf85e…5cd5backed Under | 65c | 107.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Over | 23c | 99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Under | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 24c | 73.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 37c | 72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 35c | 72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 24c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 42c | 52.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5a…669bbacked Over | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 62c | 45.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Under | 55c | 42.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 374 | 51.3%192 W · 182 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 59c | 37.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 58c | 36.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…0ad3backed Under | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a41…0123backed Over | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Under | 79c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 43c | 24.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 75c | 20.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Under | 60c | 17.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado RockiesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.