MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ffd36604f998ce23a26db2d777d62b46cc2c7025d0123739ae05cfe5dd5f36b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 44c | 5,555$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444.19 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 70c | 5,230$3,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,563.74 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 56c | 4,466$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.98 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 18c | 2,520$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.55 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 45c | 2,225$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 2,150$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 1,501$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Over | 57c | 1,015$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.45 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 586.05$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.27 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 61c | 585.59$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.38 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 43c | 569.34$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.82 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 39c | 399.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.49 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 71c | 358.9$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 33c | 235.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 48c | 220$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 74c | 193.69$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…b4d1backed Over | 56c | 160$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 23c | 134.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 17c | 110.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 52c | 104.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…10e8backed Under | 44c | 101.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 49c | 96.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 56c | 91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 41c | 89.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 44c | 76.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 23c | 75.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9d…77debacked Under | 30c | 67.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 59c | 65.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc96…2791backed Over | 73c | 63.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 25c | 60.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 43c | 51.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 27c | 44.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 73c | 40.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 49c | 30.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado RockiesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.