TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,715

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,741 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7634…600dbacked Colorado Rockies61c8,000$4,880 inLost-$4,879.9960350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs39c6,022$2,349 inWon+$3,673.014,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies43c4,697$2,010 inLost-$2,01011,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies39c2,011$784 inLost-$784.2810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Colorado Rockies37c1,408$520 inLost-$520.134,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs39c1,010$395 inWon+$6158,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs62c691.74$430 inWon+$261.298,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs40c683.88$274 inWon+$410.323,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Colorado Rockies47c666.67$313 inLost-$313.0287750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs51c650.34$335 inWon+$315.73,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Colorado Rockies40c399.99$158 inLost-$158.41,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs59c360$212 inWon+$147.66,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Colorado Rockies64c234$149 inLost-$148.825,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Chicago Cubs61c159.15$96 inWon+$62.672,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs31c138.33$42 inWon+$95.98,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba92…2196backed Chicago Cubs53c124.62$66 inWon+$58.621050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs43c107.17$46 inWon+$61.66,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Colorado Rockies47c104.72$49 inLost-$49.221,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Chicago Cubs53c100$53 inWon+$472,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Cubs61c97.31$59 inWon+$37.923,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Colorado Rockies40c70.14$28 inLost-$27.911,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xd208…2751backed Colorado Rockies60c63$38 inLost-$37.8817446%80 W · 94 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Colorado Rockies47c59.4$28 inLost-$27.9279255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs58c49.47$29 inWon+$20.815,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Chicago Cubs71c46.1$33 inWon+$13.22,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Chicago Cubs51c43$22 inWon+$21.0753261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Chicago Cubs66c40.09$26 inWon+$13.7672655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies45c39.62$18 inLost-$17.9312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe10d…5d2bbacked Chicago Cubs57c35.09$20 inWon+$15.092240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs44c30$13 inWon+$16.84,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Chicago Cubs46c24.7$11 inWon+$13.3937451.3%192 W · 182 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Chicago Cubs72c21.97$16 inWon+$6.0883053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa11f…1252backed Colorado Rockies54c18.7$10 inLost-$10.0218651.1%95 W · 91 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Colorado Rockies62c18.12$11 inLost-$11.2463954.5%348 W · 291 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.