MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d36da84082f0aeee2dd1a0388b28751846c461157c890fe0993e2a349ecc9ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 4,688$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,188.44 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 68c | 4,653$3,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,164.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 1,418$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.12 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 1,222$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.41 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 1,002$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Colorado Rockies | 32c | 997.22$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.11 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Colorado Rockies | 26c | 749.05$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.75 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 31c | 667.46$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 267.43$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.43 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 222.85$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Colorado Rockies | 29c | 208$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Chicago Cubs | 57c | 206.92$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Chicago Cubs | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 67c | 182.52$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Colorado Rockies | 25c | 170$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Chicago Cubs | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 139.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Colorado Rockies | 35c | 130$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Colorado Rockies | 65c | 123.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 119.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe30…6d57backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 103.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Colorado Rockies | 27c | 93.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 91.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago Cubs | 67c | 90.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 68.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 59.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebc…095fbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 56.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…5eb0backed Colorado Rockies | 62c | 50.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Colorado Rockies | 62c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 43.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 49c | 41.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Colorado Rockies | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a41…0123backed Colorado Rockies | 35c | 31.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe10…4800backed Chicago Cubs | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 26.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…eb35backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 26.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 25.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Colorado Rockies | 69c | 23.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado RockiesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.