TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof Colorado Rockies, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,955
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,818

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,955 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies28c3,047$847 inLost-$847.3812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs71c2,468$1,752 inWon+$715.712,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs71c1,497$1,062 inWon+$434.9311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Colorado Rockies22c396.5$87 inLost-$87.231,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Colorado Rockies29c333.9$97 inLost-$96.8329354.9%161 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Colorado Rockies29c250.41$73 inLost-$72.6236250.3%182 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs78c152.42$119 inWon+$33.538,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd54…3dfbbacked Colorado Rockies29c126.52$37 inLost-$36.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x348c…c8efbacked Colorado Rockies29c98.55$29 inLost-$28.5810438.5%40 W · 64 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs71c86.21$61 inWon+$255,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Cubs78c78$61 inWon+$17.163,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs78c78$61 inWon+$17.165,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Colorado Rockies29c58.62$17 inLost-$1779543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Colorado Rockies30c38.35$12 inLost-$11.511,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs71c21.57$15 inWon+$6.268,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d2…4268backed Chicago Cubs72c21$15 inWon+$5.8814753.1%78 W · 69 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Chicago Cubs69c15$10 inWon+$4.787370.1%612 W · 261 L+91.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.