TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Cricket · resolved market

T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs New Zealand

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New Zealandof Sri Lanka, New Zealand
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,254,473
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,246,301

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,254,473 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 533 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Cricket
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4a3d…4841backed Sri Lanka32c90,956$29,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,398.1415335.3%54 W · 99 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef51…c0d3backed Sri Lanka13c67,618$8,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,985.1716349.7%81 W · 82 L+10.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x44b3…28a1backed Sri Lanka0c46,250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.335330.2%16 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+35%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed New Zealand55c30,894$16,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,960.7816546.1%76 W · 89 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x169d…fb3dbacked Sri Lanka0c25,182$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.36775.2%4 W · 73 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Sri Lanka41c24,042$9,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,953.6413151.9%68 W · 63 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1edd…be0fbacked Sri Lanka1c19,913$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.2411424.6%28 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb42…0b87backed Sri Lanka20c16,543$3,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,313.979146.2%42 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed New Zealand65c16,243$10,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,748.119851%50 W · 48 L-9.1wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked New Zealand57c15,332$8,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,550.911735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Sri Lanka8c15,313$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.7813227.3%36 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed New Zealand64c15,156$9,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,483.9433042.4%140 W · 190 L+0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d3…2b34backed Sri Lanka40c14,992$5,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,996.721435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-46.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f28…5203backed Sri Lanka0c10,941$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4829…f201backed Sri Lanka0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203122.6%7 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-55.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc632…b5dfbacked New Zealand50c9,189$4,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,572.171735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e33…5825backed Sri Lanka41c9,027$3,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,662.584637%17 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08b5…d454backed New Zealand56c9,000$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,960.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d86…eeefbacked Sri Lanka14c8,607$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Sri Lanka41c8,011$3,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,286.755332.1%17 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Sri Lanka39c7,836$3,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,094.3128749.5%142 W · 145 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked Sri Lanka33c7,635$2,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,509.0926130.7%80 W · 181 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed New Zealand54c7,604$4,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,492.9314543.4%63 W · 82 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x601a…a675backed New Zealand61c7,539$4,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,955.534242.9%18 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked New Zealand60c7,347$4,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,929.962240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x363e…060abacked New Zealand60c6,830$4,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x101b…a993backed Sri Lanka0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked New Zealand57c6,582$3,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,836.0211153.2%59 W · 52 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a6e…eb7dbacked Sri Lanka4c6,379$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.792910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-57.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x935d…151fbacked Sri Lanka39c6,204$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,389.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6351…51ffbacked New Zealand61c6,025$3,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,362.59475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Sri Lanka20c6,000$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1902524%6 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa14d…2563backed Sri Lanka2c5,978$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.113517.1%6 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed New Zealand45c5,578$2,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,046.7913336.8%49 W · 84 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Sri Lanka39c5,093$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004639.1%18 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Sri Lanka14c5,063$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.413318.2%6 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde21…594dbacked New Zealand62c4,955$3,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,883.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Sri Lanka39c4,900$1,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9116833.8%23 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed New Zealand38c4,764$1,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,932.281154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd367…0957backed Sri Lanka40c4,735$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.34431.8%14 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9106…afcbbacked Sri Lanka39c4,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.092737%10 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked New Zealand61c4,000$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.9911143.2%48 W · 63 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed New Zealand78c3,990$3,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.3314852%77 W · 71 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x327a…2381backed Sri Lanka1c3,893$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9312122.3%27 W · 94 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-47.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a45…723fbacked Sri Lanka5c3,847$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.626219.4%12 W · 50 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-48.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ea…99bcbacked Sri Lanka77c3,587$2,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,767.681747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked Sri Lanka43c3,500$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52011445.6%52 W · 62 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d13…3c2fbacked Sri Lanka39c3,445$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.097948.1%38 W · 41 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5067…a127backed Sri Lanka40c3,175$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.47746.8%36 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Sri Lanka3c3,155$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2831543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed New Zealand47c3,055$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.923148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ed…cfe3backed Sri Lanka79c3,000$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3704168.3%28 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Sri Lanka40c3,000$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.953450%17 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Sri Lanka36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.999128.6%26 W · 65 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sri Lanka22c2,994$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.8829631.1%92 W · 204 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f12…1937backed Sri Lanka35c2,818$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.971225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…5189backed New Zealand62c2,750$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5811…dd30backed Sri Lanka41c2,664$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.16344.4%28 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…227ebacked Sri Lanka44c2,640$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.084540%18 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed New Zealand60c2,554$1,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.3620037%74 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Sri Lanka31c2,505$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.229252.2%48 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51be…1805backed Sri Lanka6c2,434$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b96…b053backed New Zealand64c2,400$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8641080%8 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+35.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69a6…4b30backed Sri Lanka5c2,300$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12215742.7%67 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Sri Lanka43c2,171$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.14669.1%6 W · 60 L-10.5wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-71.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xfecd…e7ebbacked Sri Lanka30c2,115$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.134146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+33.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa03a…3778backed Sri Lanka51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.242520%5 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a65…8d8fbacked Sri Lanka23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4602114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-69.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked New Zealand57c1,974$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.712751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9832…8e19backed New Zealand61c1,935$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d1b…a9e4backed Sri Lanka39c1,935$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Sri Lanka18c1,825$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.751414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-55.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ffe…073abacked Sri Lanka31c1,812$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.751010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked New Zealand76c1,686$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.610863.9%69 W · 39 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec87…912dbacked Sri Lanka40c1,675$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.161560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Sri Lanka48c1,673$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.5215429.9%46 W · 108 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb207…c751backed Sri Lanka51c1,671$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.627349.3%36 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a67…e0dbbacked Sri Lanka4c1,628$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622437.5%9 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid-1.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c95…8a0bbacked New Zealand60c1,606$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.2710356.3%58 W · 45 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ee…1686backed New Zealand68c1,576$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.3918923.8%45 W · 144 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3bc…c824backed New Zealand61c1,560$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ea…a27abacked Sri Lanka13c1,448$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.6150%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c68…c9b3backed Sri Lanka41c1,300$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53422141.6%92 W · 129 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cf4…5daabacked New Zealand77c1,298$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.554047.5%19 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked New Zealand60c1,297$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.7514546.2%67 W · 78 L+16.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+17.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x47a0…77f1backed Sri Lanka2c1,297$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.34160%0 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Sri Lanka78c1,282$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x65d8…76e5backed Sri Lanka1c1,268$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3690%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfed8…9dd0backed Sri Lanka32c1,250$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.711524.3%28 W · 87 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Sri Lanka66c1,236$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.4650247.4%238 W · 264 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3052…ca02backed Sri Lanka39c1,220$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.410734.6%37 W · 70 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf734…5291backed Sri Lanka2c1,196$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.559927.3%27 W · 72 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a0c…6c72backed New Zealand57c1,142$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.22454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5f…e612backed Sri Lanka7c1,136$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.235054%27 W · 23 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1048…06d6backed New Zealand72c1,117$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.781060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa557…6a40backed Sri Lanka23c1,088$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.295425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-46.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec37…3172backed New Zealand60c1,080$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4322100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick60cpaid+68.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd59…ed25backed New Zealand64c1,058$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.11977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa647…a412backed Sri Lanka2c1,053$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203917.9%7 W · 32 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b9a…3f5fbacked Sri Lanka42c1,022$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.377540%30 W · 45 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.