Earnings · resolved market
Will CME Group (CME) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f8258ec96b5fae325f47d648f222654768e24bdae4bb3d35b35459cc9188912
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 12,081$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 76c | 1,413$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.9 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 23c | 1,007$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.29 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 15c | 1,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.61 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 75c | 973.44$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.36 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 20c | 815.17$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.08 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 79c | 670.3$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.71 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 65c | 667.21$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.38 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 23c | 624.8$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.17 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…5ba0backed No | 14c | 563.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 17c | 549.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe1…eeddbacked No | 19c | 512.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…af06backed Yes | 78c | 467.75$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.64 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 25c | 436.86$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.24 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcee…0f35backed Yes | 80c | 375.38$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 17c | 263.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c0…38c8backed Yes | 77c | 258.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 65c | 238.06$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda53…9209backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 20c | 195$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9277…4e7dbacked No | 7c | 192.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Yes | 77c | 185.11$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 75c | 160.36$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 25c | 151.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0b…fb1abacked Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 18c | 132.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…9abbbacked Yes | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed No | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 76c | 104.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1610…c11abacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 97.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…d07ebacked Yes | 76c | 97.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 57c | 87.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcde8…1f7dbacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed No | 16c | 75.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…d059backed Yes | 78c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f8…1092backed No | 18c | 58.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…f471backed No | 19c | 51.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41b…321dbacked Yes | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed No | 21c | 47.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 40c | 44.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e7…a893backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…ee9fbacked Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7358…4e7ebacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…9e78backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.