Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan vs. Maryland
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15688c09c5127570e087dffda973f8311a8575c61687e7113ed1419f6c36c16d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michiganof Michigan, Maryland
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked Michigan | 39c | 20,413$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,412.62 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed Maryland | 37c | 18,205$6,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,679.73 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Maryland | 61c | 14,149$8,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,686.71 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Michigan | 37c | 6,900$2,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,347 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa47a…fd11backed Michigan | 61c | 1,532$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.86 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Maryland | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d80…219abacked Michigan | 50c | 558$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Michigan | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed Michigan | 71c | 401.71$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Michigan | 33c | 305$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.35 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Michigan | 33c | 159.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.92 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Maryland | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Maryland | 63c | 119$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Michigan | 36c | 118.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 168 | 42.3%71 W · 97 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Maryland | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f62…82f5backed Maryland | 58c | 48.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Michigan | 33c | 43.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Maryland | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Michigan | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Maryland | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Maryland | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Maryland | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.