Earnings · resolved market
Will Halliburton (HAL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98fb73073cc1b11e6a0502e8286954a8e0f5ed33c1ec47e1d63f233564c533f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03e1…2f63backed Yes | 50c | 2,640$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155a…a281backed No | 50c | 2,640$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 9c | 1,410$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.19 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 55c | 749.46$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.33 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 35c | 725$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.05 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 37c | 676$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.38 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 62c | 671.65$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.72 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 62c | 499.51$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -61%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 62c | 498.41$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.41 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 29c | 440.16$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.73 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Yes | 42c | 409.83$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.87 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed No | 68c | 382.94$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.86 | 21 | 95.2%20 W · 1 L | +6.7wins | +0.32per pick | 63cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 57c | 351.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 34c | 297.05$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…2454backed Yes | 63c | 279.75$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked No | 57c | 268.48$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.95 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 34c | 257.07$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 74c | 191.72$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 65c | 180$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…416abacked Yes | 33c | 170$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 44c | 168.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…3b68backed No | 57c | 162.56$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 44c | 137.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 47c | 123.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…fecbbacked No | 62c | 104.93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 100.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 36c | 94.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 48c | 77.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 65c | 64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3757…fd24backed Yes | 53c | 55.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 58c | 53.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…8da4backed No | 59c | 48.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 68c | 48.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked No | 62c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2443…354cbacked No | 62c | 42.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed No | 62c | 40.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 57c | 40.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…061bbacked No | 53c | 37.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 34.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a82…bdc6backed Yes | 42c | 33.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…7cbebacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcd…42e1backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…6333backed Yes | 37c | 29.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 41c | 25.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…df17backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 67c | 22.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…3658backed No | 57c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…f6febacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…e354backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.