Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 130 or more times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28f79072d416a8250e476d81594621f57d74fc02277a5ebb90e7574b80d65399
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 24c | 2,363$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.96 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 79c | 2,014$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 65cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…3873backed No | 75c | 804$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 78c | 766.02$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.28 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 66c | 716.4$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.54 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 72c | 600$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed No | 46c | 500.01$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc154…4101backed No | 6c | 342.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 45c | 270.39$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.27 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 24c | 250$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 71c | 212.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…a975backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 24c | 170$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 22c | 164.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0824…3bd9backed Yes | 76c | 154.88$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 79c | 143.41$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…98cebacked No | 24c | 128$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +163.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb677…46f6backed No | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 22c | 115.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…6745backed No | 78c | 112.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…9447backed Yes | 78c | 110.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…4d9dbacked Yes | 76c | 85.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…b3febacked Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28eb…3f1abacked Yes | 23c | 64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf087…40f5backed Yes | 63c | 42.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0b…1f5bbacked Yes | 70c | 37.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…e0e8backed Yes | 78c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1020…d306backed Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…1605backed No | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 130 or more times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-109?No won
- Will Elon tweet 110-119?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120-129?No won
- Will Elon tweet 60-69 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 70-79 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 80-89 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 60 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.