AI · resolved market
Will Waymo launch in Washington DC by June 30 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd94894a4125edde80b7af73cff2bc62cfb0fcc90d33c5541c6d8c1ada761bebd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 45c | 1,448$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.68 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 17c | 1,038$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.36 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 48c | 771.33$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.49 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 61c | 400$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…ee92backed Yes | 46c | 352$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 341.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 315$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 66c | 303.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 60c | 284.41$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.01 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 53c | 250$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 7c | 237.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 7c | 214.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 203.6$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.86 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 8c | 178.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 56c | 144.44$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 110.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d23…031abacked Yes | 19c | 107.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 44c | 102.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…c098backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -71%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 16c | 92.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 57c | 72.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 60c | 72.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993b…dedabacked Yes | 33c | 72.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…7e26backed Yes | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 45.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x157d…c16fbacked No | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…b9debacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 34c | 32.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…d837backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 60c | 20.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe582…b6dcbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…72e9backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Waymo launch in Washington DC by June 30 2026?this page
- Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Waymo launch in Denver by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Waymo launch in Detroit by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.